Best Computer For Forex Traders On The Planet(FUNNY!)

Algorithmic Trading

A place for redditors to discuss quantitative trading, statistical methods, econometrics, programming, implementation, automated strategies, and bounce ideas off each other for constructive criticism. Feel free to submit papers/links of things you find interesting.
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$1200 USD Trading Machine

Mainly needing help with the main build, accessories are taken care of. Want a fast PC that can handle trading 24/7.
[1200USD]My budget
Date I will buy:ASAP
[]before [X]after tax - rate: 6.25
[]OK with rebates - I know I will pay more upfront
Country:USA
Not US/CAN/EU/AUS? Provide websites to shop:
[X]Microcente[]Frys store access
USAGE
List programs and indicate distribution with percentages: xx%
[]Gaming:
[]Gameplay streaming to Twitch, YouTube
[]Photo/Video editing:
[]Music/Audio production:
[]CAD, CFD/FEA, Engineering Simulations:
[]Server:
[X]NAS/Web surfing:100% I will only be using this PC for general use web browsing and Forex trading. Computer will be running 24/7 and primarily running meta trader 4 and on tradingview.com
Percent time spent in each role:
SCREENS Select ONE [X]1080p60Hz []1080p144Hz []1440p60Hz []1440p144Hz []5760x1080-Triple Wide []4K 60Hz [X]I own []don't own this
I plan on having 4 screens total so need support for that.
OVERCLOCKING
[]I am willing to overclock my CPU
Can be very helpful for high refresh rate monitors (144Hz)
Many workstation programs benefit from it
ENVIRONMENT
[]Hot []Dusty/Pets [x]On 24/7 []Low noise [X]Normal
PERIPHERALS
I have: Dell D3218HN
[]Mouse:
[]Keyboard:
[]Headphones/speakers:
I need:
[]Mouse: []flawless sensor, grip: []palm []fingertip []claw []Keyboard: []mechanical []quiet []tenkeyless []backlighting []Headphones/speakers: []over ear []on ear []in ear []Isolation required
OPERATING SYSTEM
I need Windows[], version:
[]I have access to DreamSpark or a similar for cheapefree OS
INTERNET
[]I can connect to this computer with [] a cable or [] a Powerline adapter
[x]I need wireless
CURRENT PARTS
Please list any parts you own we could use, exact part numbers (especially for PSU's) or pcpartpicker.com links are most appreciated:
Dell D3218HN
submitted by IndependentNeck to CabaloftheBuildsmiths [link] [comments]

Does forex trading make sense for someone with a computer science background as a way to make money on the side?

I'd like to make some money on the side. I have a computer science background. I read the Wiki, but it mostly contained educational resources, whereas I'm wondering "does it make sense to trade forex in my position".
I see three possible benefits of trading forex:
  1. I trade forex and get some money on the side
  2. I trade forex, get good at it, then program a bot that trades forex (not sure how profitable this is)
  3. I trade forex and pick up some skills that are useful if I'm investing later on in my life (in tech companies etc.)
I'm trying to weigh trading forex against doing freelance programming work on the side as a way to earn extra money.
Hence I arrive at my question: Does forex trading make sense for someone with a computer science background as a way to make money on the side? Is it worth it, given that I want to invest in companies later on in my life? Or should I stick to programming freelancing?
submitted by A_Time_Space_Person to Forex [link] [comments]

PC stick / mini computer forex trading setup questions. Any advise is appreciated.

I’m looking to get a pc stick (or a min pc) to run through my Samsung Frame tv in my bedroom as an always on day trading computer. It’s almost sole function will be to only run trading applications and get on the internet occasionally to do research Occasionally. What would be recommend for something like this? I’m trying to keep my budget under $500 if possible.
submitted by killacam333 to MiniPCs [link] [comments]

Who is with me? UPVOTE AND COMMENT ... learn how to make extra income from working from home on your computer or mobile phones through trading on the forex market hit me up to know more

submitted by Rowlandgates to FreeKarma4U [link] [comments]

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submitted by ViralMedia007 to FREECoursesEveryday [link] [comments]

Hedge Funds Are Training Their Computers to Think Like You #fintech #trading #algotrading #quantitative #quant #quants #hft ##markets #hedgefunds #fx #forex

Hedge Funds Are Training Their Computers to Think Like You #fintech #trading #algotrading #quantitative #quant #quants #hft ##markets #hedgefunds #fx #forex submitted by silahian to quant_hft [link] [comments]

Need help building a mini iTX / SFF Computer specifically for day trading on the forex market.

As stated in the title, if anyone could help me with this endeavor I would greatly appreciate it. I'm also open to prebuilt options as well. Ideally SSD with a capability for 2-3 ultra wide monitors or the option to use a projector as the main screen and project onto the wall. Any and all input, advice, or other options I haven't considered will be taken into account. I'm trying to accomplish this for less than $800 but I'm a total noob when it comes to building a computer. Thanks in advance!
submitted by killacam333 to buildapc [link] [comments]

Won $300 in Forex trading, bought computer games with it #AMA!

Partial list of games purchased: http://i.imgur.com/CluIye7.jpg
submitted by moon_is_cheese to pcmasterrace [link] [comments]

Forex trading speeds up moves to computer platform due to human trader ethical violations

submitted by jonfla to Ethics [link] [comments]

How does a beginner really begin?

I have $60 in cash, I am a minor. I've been watching hours of forex videos on YouTube, and I get the mt4 app on my phone and the program on my computer, because I heard about demo trading. I just have no idea what to do. I was interested in Fidelity as a broker but I'm not sure if they offer forex trading. I would like to know what the difference is between me who knows nothing(despite watching many YouTube videos) and you guys who actually do this regularly. Is it experience? If you must answer me with more questions please do I would be more than happy to talk
submitted by hello123poo to Forex [link] [comments]

High Frequency Forex Manipulation Evidence: "physically impossible for anyone to trade like this manually without the use of a specially programmed high speed computer"

submitted by paizon to reddit.com [link] [comments]

What to study in Canada

Hi everyone,
My first post here.
I am planning to do an M.A in Canada hoping to be able to get a job there and to live there permanently. This is going to be a very challenging and somewhat long experience and the first issue is that I don't know what I want to/should/need to study. :/
I really don't know where to start and if I should do something I like or do something that is in demand. I was thinking maybe I can describe my qualifications and interests here for you guys to take a look and let me know what you think. I really appreciate any suggestions/ideas.
There are also things to consider and things I'm not sure about that makes choosing what to do more complicated for me.
I'm really sorry if you're head is exploding after reading this but I'm really confused and feel pretty bad that I don't know what I want to do with my life considering trying to jobs already.
Your opinion can help a lot. Maybe you guys can show me a way to be able to realize what I should study.

Thank you very much for your time.
submitted by memehrdad to ImmigrationCanada [link] [comments]

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part II

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part II
Firstly, thanks for the overwhelming comments and feedback. Genuinely really appreciated. I am pleased 500+ of you find it useful.
If you didn't read the first post you can do so here: risk management part I. You'll need to do so in order to make sense of the topic.
As ever please comment/reply below with questions or feedback and I'll do my best to get back to you.
Part II
  • Letting stops breathe
  • When to change a stop
  • Entering and exiting winning positions
  • Risk:reward ratios
  • Risk-adjusted returns

Letting stops breathe

We talked earlier about giving a position enough room to breathe so it is not stopped out in day-to-day noise.
Let’s consider the chart below and imagine you had a trailing stop. It would be super painful to miss out on the wider move just because you left a stop that was too tight.

Imagine being long and stopped out on a meaningless retracement ... ouch!
One simple technique is simply to look at your chosen chart - let’s say daily bars. And then look at previous trends and use the measuring tool. Those generally look something like this and then you just click and drag to measure.
For example if we wanted to bet on a downtrend on the chart above we might look at the biggest retracement on the previous uptrend. That max drawdown was about 100 pips or just under 1%. So you’d want your stop to be able to withstand at least that.
If market conditions have changed - for example if CVIX has risen - and daily ranges are now higher you should incorporate that. If you know a big event is coming up you might think about that, too. The human brain is a remarkable tool and the power of the eye-ball method is not to be dismissed. This is how most discretionary traders do it.
There are also more analytical approaches.
Some look at the Average True Range (ATR). This attempts to capture the volatility of a pair, typically averaged over a number of sessions. It looks at three separate measures and takes the largest reading. Think of this as a moving average of how much a pair moves.
For example, below shows the daily move in EURUSD was around 60 pips before spiking to 140 pips in March. Conditions were clearly far more volatile in March. Accordingly, you would need to leave your stop further away in March and take a correspondingly smaller position size.

ATR is available on pretty much all charting systems
Professional traders tend to use standard deviation as a measure of volatility instead of ATR. There are advantages and disadvantages to both. Averages are useful but can be misleading when regimes switch (see above chart).
Once you have chosen a measure of volatility, stop distance can then be back-tested and optimised. For example does 2x ATR work best or 5x ATR for a given style and time horizon?
Discretionary traders may still eye-ball the ATR or standard deviation to get a feeling for how it has changed over time and what ‘normal’ feels like for a chosen study period - daily, weekly, monthly etc.

Reasons to change a stop

As a general rule you should be disciplined and not change your stops. Remember - losers average losers. This is really hard at first and we’re going to look at that in more detail later.
There are some good reasons to modify stops but they are rare.
One reason is if another risk management process demands you stop trading and close positions. We’ll look at this later. In that case just close out your positions at market and take the loss/gains as they are.
Another is event risk. If you have some big upcoming data like Non Farm Payrolls that you know can move the market +/- 150 pips and you have no edge going into the release then many traders will take off or scale down their positions. They’ll go back into the positions when the data is out and the market has quietened down after fifteen minutes or so. This is a matter of some debate - many traders consider it a coin toss and argue you win some and lose some and it all averages out.
Trailing stops can also be used to ‘lock in’ profits. We looked at those before. As the trade moves in your favour (say up if you are long) the stop loss ratchets with it. This means you may well end up ‘stopping out’ at a profit - as per the below example.

The mighty trailing stop loss order
It is perfectly reasonable to have your stop loss move in the direction of PNL. This is not exposing you to more risk than you originally were comfortable with. It is taking less and less risk as the trade moves in your favour. Trend-followers in particular love trailing stops.
One final question traders ask is what they should do if they get stopped out but still like the trade. Should they try the same trade again a day later for the same reasons? Nope. Look for a different trade rather than getting emotionally wed to the original idea.
Let’s say a particular stock looked cheap based on valuation metrics yesterday, you bought, it went down and you got stopped out. Well, it is going to look even better on those same metrics today. Maybe the market just doesn’t respect value at the moment and is driven by momentum. Wait it out.
Otherwise, why even have a stop in the first place?

Entering and exiting winning positions

Take profits are the opposite of stop losses. They are also resting orders, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price.
Imagine I’m long EURUSD at 1.1250. If it hits a previous high of 1.1400 (150 pips higher) I will leave a sell order to take profit and close the position.
The rookie mistake on take profits is to take profit too early. One should start from the assumption that you will win on no more than half of your trades. Therefore you will need to ensure that you win more on the ones that work than you lose on those that don’t.

Sad to say but incredibly common: retail traders often take profits way too early
This is going to be the exact opposite of what your emotions want you to do. We are going to look at that in the Psychology of Trading chapter.
Remember: let winners run. Just like stops you need to know in advance the level where you will close out at a profit. Then let the trade happen. Don’t override yourself and let emotions force you to take a small profit. A classic mistake to avoid.
The trader puts on a trade and it almost stops out before rebounding. As soon as it is slightly in the money they spook and cut out, instead of letting it run to their original take profit. Do not do this.

Entering positions with limit orders

That covers exiting a position but how about getting into one?
Take profits can also be left speculatively to enter a position. Sometimes referred to as “bids” (buy orders) or “offers” (sell orders). Imagine the price is 1.1250 and the recent low is 1.1205.
You might wish to leave a bid around 1.2010 to enter a long position, if the market reaches that price. This way you don’t need to sit at the computer and wait.
Again, typically traders will use tech analysis to identify attractive levels. Again - other traders will cluster with your orders. Just like the stop loss we need to bake that in.
So this time if we know everyone is going to buy around the recent low of 1.1205 we might leave the take profit bit a little bit above there at 1.1210 to ensure it gets done. Sure it costs 5 more pips but how mad would you be if the low was 1.1207 and then it rallied a hundred points and you didn’t have the trade on?!
There are two more methods that traders often use for entering a position.
Scaling in is one such technique. Let’s imagine that you think we are in a long-term bulltrend for AUDUSD but experiencing a brief retracement. You want to take a total position of 500,000 AUD and don’t have a strong view on the current price action.
You might therefore leave a series of five bids of 100,000. As the price moves lower each one gets hit. The nice thing about scaling in is it reduces pressure on you to pick the perfect level. Of course the risk is that not all your orders get hit before the price moves higher and you have to trade at-market.
Pyramiding is the second technique. Pyramiding is for take profits what a trailing stop loss is to regular stops. It is especially common for momentum traders.

Pyramiding into a position means buying more as it goes in your favour
Again let’s imagine we’re bullish AUDUSD and want to take a position of 500,000 AUD.
Here we add 100,000 when our first signal is reached. Then we add subsequent clips of 100,000 when the trade moves in our favour. We are waiting for confirmation that the move is correct.
Obviously this is quite nice as we humans love trading when it goes in our direction. However, the drawback is obvious: we haven’t had the full amount of risk on from the start of the trend.
You can see the attractions and drawbacks of both approaches. It is best to experiment and choose techniques that work for your own personal psychology as these will be the easiest for you to stick with and build a disciplined process around.

Risk:reward and win ratios

Be extremely skeptical of people who claim to win on 80% of trades. Most traders will win on roughly 50% of trades and lose on 50% of trades. This is why risk management is so important!
Once you start keeping a trading journal you’ll be able to see how the win/loss ratio looks for you. Until then, assume you’re typical and that every other trade will lose money.
If that is the case then you need to be sure you make more on the wins than you lose on the losses. You can see the effect of this below.

A combination of win % and risk:reward ratio determine if you are profitable
A typical rule of thumb is that a ratio of 1:3 works well for most traders.
That is, if you are prepared to risk 100 pips on your stop you should be setting a take profit at a level that would return you 300 pips.
One needn’t be religious about these numbers - 11 pips and 28 pips would be perfectly fine - but they are a guideline.
Again - you should still use technical analysis to find meaningful chart levels for both the stop and take profit. Don’t just blindly take your stop distance and do 3x the pips on the other side as your take profit. Use the ratio to set approximate targets and then look for a relevant resistance or support level in that kind of region.

Risk-adjusted returns

Not all returns are equal. Suppose you are examining the track record of two traders. Now, both have produced a return of 14% over the year. Not bad!
The first trader, however, made hundreds of small bets throughout the year and his cumulative PNL looked like the left image below.
The second trader made just one bet — he sold CADJPY at the start of the year — and his PNL looked like the right image below with lots of large drawdowns and volatility.
Would you rather have the first trading record or the second?
If you were investing money and betting on who would do well next year which would you choose? Of course all sensible people would choose the first trader. Yet if you look only at returns one cannot distinguish between the two. Both are up 14% at that point in time. This is where the Sharpe ratio helps .
A high Sharpe ratio indicates that a portfolio has better risk-adjusted performance. One cannot sensibly compare returns without considering the risk taken to earn that return.
If I can earn 80% of the return of another investor at only 50% of the risk then a rational investor should simply leverage me at 2x and enjoy 160% of the return at the same level of risk.
This is very important in the context of Execution Advisor algorithms (EAs) that are popular in the retail community. You must evaluate historic performance by its risk-adjusted return — not just the nominal return. Incidentally look at the Sharpe ratio of ones that have been live for a year or more ...
Otherwise an EA developer could produce two EAs: the first simply buys at 1000:1 leverage on January 1st ; and the second sells in the same manner. At the end of the year, one of them will be discarded and the other will look incredible. Its risk-adjusted return, however, would be abysmal and the odds of repeated success are similarly poor.

Sharpe ratio

The Sharpe ratio works like this:
  • It takes the average returns of your strategy;
  • It deducts from these the risk-free rate of return i.e. the rate anyone could have got by investing in US government bonds with very little risk;
  • It then divides this total return by its own volatility - the more smooth the return the higher and better the Sharpe, the more volatile the lower and worse the Sharpe.
For example, say the return last year was 15% with a volatility of 10% and US bonds are trading at 2%. That gives (15-2)/10 or a Sharpe ratio of 1.3. As a rule of thumb a Sharpe ratio of above 0.5 would be considered decent for a discretionary retail trader. Above 1 is excellent.
You don’t really need to know how to calculate Sharpe ratios. Good trading software will do this for you. It will either be available in the system by default or you can add a plug-in.

VAR

VAR is another useful measure to help with drawdowns. It stands for Value at Risk. Normally people will use 99% VAR (conservative) or 95% VAR (aggressive). Let’s say you’re long EURUSD and using 95% VAR. The system will look at the historic movement of EURUSD. It might spit out a number of -1.2%.

A 5% VAR of -1.2% tells you you should expect to lose 1.2% on 5% of days, whilst 95% of days should be better than that
This means it is expected that on 5 days out of 100 (hence the 95%) the portfolio will lose 1.2% or more. This can help you manage your capital by taking appropriately sized positions. Typically you would look at VAR across your portfolio of trades rather than trade by trade.
Sharpe ratios and VAR don’t give you the whole picture, though. Legendary fund manager, Howard Marks of Oaktree, notes that, while tools like VAR and Sharpe ratios are helpful and absolutely necessary, the best investors will also overlay their own judgment.
Investors can calculate risk metrics like VaR and Sharpe ratios (we use them at Oaktree; they’re the best tools we have), but they shouldn’t put too much faith in them. The bottom line for me is that risk management should be the responsibility of every participant in the investment process, applying experience, judgment and knowledge of the underlying investments.Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital
What he’s saying is don’t misplace your common sense. Do use these tools as they are helpful. However, you cannot fully rely on them. Both assume a normal distribution of returns. Whereas in real life you get “black swans” - events that should supposedly happen only once every thousand years but which actually seem to happen fairly often.
These outlier events are often referred to as “tail risk”. Don’t make the mistake of saying “well, the model said…” - overlay what the model is telling you with your own common sense and good judgment.

Coming up in part III

Available here
Squeezes and other risks
Market positioning
Bet correlation
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

***
Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]

Screen time damage

Hi guys. If your new to reading forex you must have noticed the amount of time you spend looking at the screen. and for the paste two weeks I've been spelling lot of time checking chats. I believe there's no way to avoid this if you are still a newbie..
My eyes sight is getting more blurry day after day. And I get some mild pains from staring at the screen for long hours, plus difficulty to sleep.. how do you guys mitigate the damages done to your eyes from trading ? If your a professional/ expert you obviously spend more time on screen too. or those who work with a brokefirms. I'm having this feeling like I'm a geek who have to sit on his computer long hours staring at multiple charts and trying to understand everything.
Advice. Thanks..
submitted by IveSawitall to Forex [link] [comments]

Former investment bank FX trader: news trading and second order thinking

Former investment bank FX trader: news trading and second order thinking
Thanks to everyone who responded to the previous pieces on risk management. We ended up with nearly 2,000 upvotes and I'm delighted so many of you found it useful.
This time we're going to focus on a new area: reacting to and trading around news and fundamental developments.
A lot of people get this totally wrong and the main reason is that they trade the news at face value, without considering what the market had already priced in. If you've ever seen what you consider to be "good" or "better than forecast" news come out and yet been confused as the pair did nothing or moved in the opposite direction to expected, read on...
We are going to do this in two parts.
Part I
  • Introduction
  • Why use an economic calendar
  • How to read the calendar
  • Knowing what's priced in
  • Surveys
  • Rates decisions
  • First order thinking vs second order thinking

Introduction

Knowing how to use and benefit from the economic calendar is key for all traders - not just news traders.
In this chapter we are going to take a practical look at how to use the economic calendar. We are also going to look at how to interpret news using second order thinking.
The key concept is learning what has already been ‘priced in’ by the market so we can estimate how the market price might react to the new information.

Why use an economic calendar

The economic calendar contains all the scheduled economic releases for that day and week. Even if you purely trade based on technical analysis, you still must know what is in store.

https://preview.redd.it/20xdiq6gq4k51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=6cd47186db1039be7df4d7ad6782de36da48f1db
Why? Three main reasons.
Firstly, releases can help provide direction. They create trends. For example if GBPUSD has been fluctuating aimlessly within a range and suddenly the Bank of England starts raising rates you better believe the British Pound will start to move. Big news events often start long-term trends which you can trade around.
Secondly, a lot of the volatility occurs around these events. This is because these events give the market new information. Prior to a big scheduled release like the US Non Farm Payrolls you might find no one wants to take a big position. After it is released the market may move violently and potentially not just in a single direction - often prices may overshoot and come back down. Even without a trend this volatility provides lots of trading opportunities for the day trader.

https://preview.redd.it/u17iwbhiq4k51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=98ea8ed154c9468cb62037668c38e7387f2435af
Finally, these releases can change trends. Going into a huge release because of a technical indicator makes little sense. Everything could reverse and stop you out in a moment. You need to be aware of which events are likely to influence the positions you have on so you can decide whether to keep the positions or flatten exposure before the binary event for which you have no edge.
Most traders will therefore ‘scan’ the calendar for the week ahead, noting what the big events are and when they will occur. Then you can focus on each day at a time.

Reading the economic calendar


Most calendars show events cut by trading day. Helpfully they adjust the time of each release to your own timezone. For example we can see that the Bank of Japan Interest Rate decision is happening at 4am local time for this particular London-based trader.

https://preview.redd.it/lmx0q9qoq4k51.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c6e9e1533b1ba236e51296de8db3be55dfa78ba1

Note that some events do not happen at a specific time. Think of a Central Banker’s speech for example - this can go on for an hour. It is not like an economic statistic that gets released at a precise time. Clicking the finger emoji will open up additional information on each event.

Event importance

How do you define importance? Well, some events are always unimportant. With the greatest of respect to Italian farmers, nobody cares about mundane releases like Italian farm productivity figures.
Other events always seem to be important. That means, markets consistently react to them and prices move. Interest rate decisions are an example of consistently high importance events.
So the Medium and High can be thought of as guides to how much each event typically affects markets. They are not perfect guides, however, as different events are more or less important depending on the circumstances.
For example, imagine the UK economy was undergoing a consumer-led recovery. The Central Bank has said it would raise interest rates (making GBPUSD move higher) if they feel the consumer is confident.
Consumer confidence data would suddenly become an extremely important event. At other times, when the Central Bank has not said it is focused on the consumer, this release might be near irrelevant.

Knowing what's priced in

Next to each piece of economic data you can normally see three figures. Actual, Forecast, and Previous.
  • Actual refers to the number as it is released.
  • Forecast refers to the consensus estimate from analysts.
  • Previous is what it was last time.
We are going to look at this in a bit more detail later but what you care about is when numbers are better or worse than expected. Whether a number is ‘good’ or ‘bad’ really does not matter much. Yes, really.

Once you understand that markets move based on the news vs expectations, you will be less confused by price action around events

This is a common misunderstanding. Say everyone is expecting ‘great’ economic data and it comes out as ‘good’. Does the price go up?
You might think it should. After all, the economic data was good. However, everyone expected it to be great and it was just … good. The great release was ‘priced in’ by the market already. Most likely the price will be disappointed and go down.
By priced in we simply mean that the market expected it and already bought or sold. The information was already in the price before the announcement.
Incidentally the official forecasts can be pretty stale and might not accurately capture what active traders in the market expect. See the following example.

An example of pricing in

For example, let’s say the market is focused on the number of Tesla deliveries. Analysts think it’ll be 100,000 this quarter. But Elon Musk tweets something that hints he’s really, really, really looking forward to the analyst call. Tesla’s price ticks higher after the tweet as traders put on positions, reflecting the sentiment that Tesla is likely to massively beat the 100,000. (This example is not a real one - it just serves to illustrate the concept.)

Tesla deliveries are up hugely vs last quarter ... but they are disappointing vs market expectations ... what do you think will happen to the stock?

On the day it turns out Tesla hit 101,000. A better than the officially forecasted result - sure - but only marginally. Way below what readers of Musk's twitter account might have thought. Disappointed traders may sell their longs and close out the positions. The stock might go down on ‘good’ results because the market had priced in something even better. (This example is not a real one - it just serves to illustrate the concept.)

Surveys

It can be a little hard to know what the market really expects. Often the published forecasts are stale and do not reflect what actual traders and investors are looking for.
One of the most effective ways is a simple survey of investors. Something like a Twitter poll like this one from CNBC is freely available and not a bad barometer.
CNBC, Bloomberg and other business TV stations often have polls on their Twitter accounts that let you know what others are expecting

Interest rates decisions

We know that interest rates heavily affect currency prices.
For major interest rate decisions there’s a great tool on the CME’s website that you can use.

See the link for a demo

This gives you a % probability of each interest rate level, implied by traded prices in the bond futures market. For example, in the case above the market thinks there’s a 20% chance the Fed will cut rates to 75-100bp.
Obviously this is far more accurate than analyst estimates because it uses actual bond prices where market participants are directly taking risk and placing bets. It basically looks at what interest rate traders are willing to lend at just before/after the date of the central bank meeting to imply the odds that the market ascribes to a change on that date.
Always try to estimate what the market has priced in. That way you have some context for whether the release really was better or worse than expected.

Second order thinking

You have to know what the market expects to try and guess how it’ll react. This is referred to by Howard Marks of Oaktree as second-level thinking. His explanation is so clear I am going to quote extensively.
It really is hard to improve on this clarity of thought:
First-level thinking is simplistic and superficial, and just about everyone can do it (a bad sign for anything involving an attempt at superiority). All the first-level thinker needs is an opinion about the future, as in “The outlook for the company is favorable, meaning the stock will go up.” Second-level thinking is deep, complex and convoluted.
Howard Marks
He explains first-level thinking:
The first-level thinker simply looks for the highest quality company, the best product, the fastest earnings growth or the lowest p/e ratio. He’s ignorant of the very existence of a second level at which to think, and of the need to pursue it.
Howard Marks
The above describes the guy who sees a 101,000 result and buys Tesla stock because - hey, this beat expectations. Marks goes on to describe second-level thinking:
The second-level thinker goes through a much more complex process when thinking about buying an asset. Is it good? Do others think it’s as good as I think it is? Is it really as good as I think it is? Is it as good as others think it is? Is it as good as others think others think it is? How will it change? How do others think it will change? How is it priced given: its current condition; how do I think its conditions will change; how others think it will change; and how others think others think it will change? And that’s just the beginning. No, this isn’t easy.
Howard Marks
In this version of events you are always thinking about the market’s response to Tesla results.
What do you think they’ll announce? What has the market priced in? Is Musk reliable? Are the people who bought because of his tweet likely to hold on if he disappoints or exit immediately? If it goes up at which price will they take profit? How big a number is now considered ‘wow’ by the market?
As Marks says: not easy. However, you need to start getting into the habit of thinking like this if you want to beat the market. You can make gameplans in advance for various scenarios.
Here are some examples from Marks to illustrate the difference between first order and second order thinking.

Some further examples
Trying to react fast to headlines is impossible in today’s market of ultra fast computers. You will never win on speed. Therefore you have to out-think the average participant.

Coming up in part II

Now that we have a basic understanding of concepts such as expectations and what the market has priced in, we can look at some interesting trading techniques and tools.
Part II
  • Preparing for quantitative and qualitative releases
  • Data surprise index
  • Using recent events to predict future reactions
  • Buy the rumour, sell the fact
  • The trimming position effect
  • Reversals
  • Some key FX releases
Hope you enjoyed this note. As always, please reply with any questions/feedback - it is fun to hear from you.
***
Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]

Forex Trading Robots

Has anyone got experience in using Forex Trading Robots? I had been wondering whether automated computer software could be used to make a small passive income by exchanging currencies and taking advantage of the small peaks and troughs in exchange rates. A quick google showed these robots but based on the limited number of articles on them I presume like a lot of investments the risk outweighs the reward?
submitted by quangola to UKPersonalFinance [link] [comments]

What to study for Master's Degree in Canada.

Hi everyone,
My first post here.
I am planning to do an M.A in Canada hoping to be able to get a job there and to live there permanently. This is going to be a very challenging and somewhat long experience and the first issue is that I don't know what I want to/should/need to study. :/
I really don't know where to start and if I should do something I like or do something that is in demand. I was thinking maybe I can describe my qualifications and interests here for you guys to take a look and let me know what you think. I really appreciate any suggestions/ideas.
There are also things to consider and things I'm not sure about that makes choosing what to do more complicated for me.
I'm really sorry if you're head is exploding after reading this but I'm really confused and feel pretty bad that I don't know what I want to do with my life considering trying to jobs already.
Your opinion can help a lot. Maybe you guys can show me a way to be able to realize what I should study.

Thank you very much for your time.
submitted by memehrdad to study [link] [comments]

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I want to learn to predict stocks using machine learning

I am in college right now and I have to write a research paper on any topic related to artificial intelligence. I have a huge interest in stock markets, so I think this research paper will be a good excuse to learn predicting stocks.
I am a computer science major, but I have absolutely no idea about Machine Learning. So, What are the good resources, places to start learning machine learning and predicting stocks.
Here's my topic: Predicting stock market using machine learning for day-trading and swing trading.
it could also be forex or crypto trading if that could be predicted more accurately.
submitted by its_shawn9 to IWantToLearn [link] [comments]

Robinhood, a criminal enterprise

Speaking as someone who has used a selection of trading platforms for the past decade, I want to emphasize just how bad robinhood is.
Especially for a momentum trader who hits bid and offers, my experience with this platform has been infuriating.
I get that it is a simple and clean platform that makes trading seem easy and manageable. For those just getting into trading, it's a useful way to learn.
However, the fulfillment of trades is downright criminal. Not only do they literally siphon off trades (I believe they skim about $25 off most trades), but they also seem to intentionally delay execution as well as completely fail to fill orders.
The final straw was when my stop trade was not even executed as the option traded through the target price.
I will be transferring my funds into my td account, their platform might look like my dad's windows 95 computer but at least they won't fuck me over.
Are there any actual professional traders that can recommend a fast and reliable platform?
Metatrader with it's one click forex trading was wonderful but very few brokers support 3rd party platforms.
submitted by tigre12345 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

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List of 70 plus Udemy and Some Best Discounted ( Code Valid from few hours to upto 2 days )
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Tutorial 1 - MetaTrader 4 Tips and Tricks - YouTube Trading Computer Setup (For different budgets) - YouTube How To Build A Trading Computer - YouTube The ONLY Forex Trading Video You Will EVER Need - YouTube Day Trading Computer Requirements - YouTube My Trading Setup For Forex & Indices - YouTube Building a Powerful Trading Computer on a Budget (Complete ... How To Download MetaTrader4 (MT4) To Trade Forex On Your ... How To Start Forex Trading For Beginners (2020) - YouTube

Expensive Trading Computer Setups In The Office/Home. Have you ever seen 6 monitor trading computers like this below? It would be good to have such a trading computer setup in my house I’d probably do that when I make good money from forex trading. Right now, my laptop is sufficient. Here's a selection of our cheapest yet highly functional Forex Trading computers. 3-Monitor Stock Trading Computer (Best Value) 4-Monitor (24") Computer (Mid-Range - NEW!) 6-Monitor Computer (Best Value) 8-Monitor Stock Trading Computer (Ultra Fast) PS: we do NOT sell computers. We pick the BEST QUALITY parts at the LOWEST PRICE that are COMPATIBLE and give you links to buy those parts. PPS ... Reliability is critical to a good trading computer. Our chassis have excellent cooling, which is critical to avoiding component failure. Our power supplies feature power factor correction and highly stable voltages. All computers produced at Falcon undergo 72-96 hours of stress testing. Our tests use 9 different stress tests so that we ensure your system is going to last well past the expected ... Unterschiedliche Zeitebenen: Gerade beim Forex & CFD Trading ist es wichtig, dass Sie sich Charts in möglichst kleinen Zeitrahmen von Stunden oder Minuten anzeigen lassen können, da Sie Ihre Positionen hier oft nicht langfristig halten, sondern meist innerhalb eines Tages wieder schließen. Marktnews: Eine gute Trading Software zeichnet sich durch automatische Benachrichtigungen zu Marktnews ... Forex trading involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Full Disclosure. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. *Increasing leverage increases risk. GAIN Capital Group LLC (dba FOREX.com) 135 US Hwy 202/206 Bedminster NJ 07921, USA. GAIN Capital Group LLC is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc ... Entfernen Sie sich von Ihrem Computer und kochen Sie sich was Leckeres, oder gehen Sie an die frische Luft. Wenn Sie zulange in der nervenaufreibenden Welt des Forex Tradings sind, müssen Sie auch einmal abschalten können. Lösen Sie Ihre Gedanken von der Forex-Trading-Welt und tanken Sie wieder Energie. Legen Sie sich Grenzen fest, wie viele Stunden am Tag Sie Traden. Als absolute ... You really don’t need to spend a fortune on multiple monitor trading computers like the ones shown above if you are not making sufficient profits in forex trading to pay for those. At the end of the day, someone with a single laptop can make a lot of money trading forex than the one with the fanciest and the most expensive trading computer ... Final Thoughts on Choosing the Best Computer for Trading Forex. The latest advances in trading technology have made it very easy for people to trade from home, with off-the-shelf computers. You don't need a fancy top-of-the-line computer to be a successful trader. It's better to buy something that is super affordable and spend the rest of your budget on your education. I find that the people ... Multiple Monitor Forex Trading Computer. Multiple monitors are essential for any trader. Whether you are a day trader, swing trader, or forex trader, multiple monitors work to your advantage by providing you with additional screen real estate to be able to view multiple applications or charts simultaneously. You can view multiple currencies and have several other historical charts in view at ... How to Choose a Computer for Forex Trading. July 31, 2017 Tyson Clayton. By Tyson Clayton. July 31, 2017. 18. To be a successful trader, you need to keep up with the rapid changes that occur in the forex market. In addition to keeping up to date on current market trends, you also need to have a reliable machine and internet connection to ensure that you can make the trades with ease. That is ...

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Tutorial 1 - MetaTrader 4 Tips and Tricks - YouTube

MetaTrader 4, also known as MT4, is an electronic trading platform widely used by online retail foreign exchange speculative traders. It was developed by Met... Can you build a powerful trading computer on a budget? The answer is YES and is the reason we provide a complete parts list on this video. The first list inc... MetaTrader 4 is an extremely robust and efficient way to manage your investing. This video will demonstrate some of the platform features and will help you u... The ONLY Forex Trading Video You Will EVER NeedTHIS QUICK TEST WILL HELP YOU BECOME FINANCIALLY FREETake it HERE: https://discover.tiersoffreedom.comTo join my ... What kind of computer specifications may I need for day trading? A simple explanation from Day Trader Peter K, will answer that. www.fortetrader.com www.face... follow me on instagram: https://www.instagram.com/mohsen_hassan/ Check out our ONLINE COURSES with discounts over 90% using the links below (~10 Hours each):... How To Build A Trading Computer So you're looking to trade but aren't sure what technology to use, or don't want to pay the outrageous prices that "trading c... I've been asked a couple of times about my trading setup for trading Forex and indices so I have finally got around to making a video on it. In this video I ... Here is a complete beginner guide on how to start trading forex. Learn what forex is, what we trade & how to make money trading forex. Broker I personally us...

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