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Forex Signals Reddit: top providers review (part 1)

Forex Signals Reddit: top providers review (part 1)

Forex Signals - TOP Best Services. Checked!

To invest in the financial markets, we must acquire good tools that help us carry out our operations in the best possible way. In this sense, we always talk about the importance of brokers, however, signal systems must also be taken into account.
The platforms that offer signals to invest in forex provide us with alerts that will help us in a significant way to be able to carry out successful operations.
For this reason, we are going to tell you about the importance of these alerts in relation to the trading we carry out, because, without a doubt, this type of system will provide us with very good information to invest at the right time and in the best assets in the different markets. financial
Within this context, we will focus on Forex signals, since it is the most important market in the world, since in it, multiple transactions are carried out on a daily basis, hence the importance of having an alert system that offers us all the necessary data to invest in currencies.
Also, as we all already know, cryptocurrencies have become a very popular alternative to investing in traditional currencies. Therefore, some trading services/tools have emerged that help us to carry out successful operations in this particular market.
In the following points, we will detail everything you need to know to start operating in the financial markets using trading signals: what are signals, how do they work, because they are a very powerful help, etc. Let's go there!

What are Forex Trading Signals?

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Before explaining the importance of Forex signals, let's start by making a small note so that we know what exactly these alerts are.
Thus, we will know that the signals on the currency market are received by traders to know all the information that concerns Forex, both for assets and for the market itself.
These alerts allow us to know the movements that occur in the Forex market and the changes that occur in the different currency pairs. But the great advantage that this type of system gives us is that they provide us with the necessary information, to know when is the right time to carry out our investments.
In other words, through these signals, we will know the opportunities that are presented in the market and we will be able to carry out operations that can become quite profitable.
Profitability is precisely another of the fundamental aspects that must be taken into account when we talk about Forex signals since the vast majority of these alerts offer fairly reliable data on assets. Similarly, these signals can also provide us with recommendations or advice to make our operations more successful.

»Purpose: predict movements to carry out Profitable Operations

In short, Forex signal systems aim to predict the behavior that the different assets that are in the market will present and this is achieved thanks to new technologies, the creation of specialized software, and of course, the work of financial experts.
In addition, it must also be borne in mind that the reliability of these alerts largely lies in the fact that they are prepared by financial professionals. So they turn out to be a perfect tool so that our investments can bring us a greater number of benefits.

The best signal services today

We are going to tell you about the 3 main alert system services that we currently have on the market. There are many more, but I can assure these are not scams and are reliable. Of course, not 100% of trades will be a winner, so please make sure you apply proper money management and risk management system.

1. 1000pipbuilder (top choice)

Fast track your success and follow the high-performance Forex signals from 1000pip Builder. These Forex signals are rated 5 stars on Investing.com, so you can follow every signal with confidence. All signals are sent by a professional trader with over 10 years investment experience. This is a unique opportunity to see with your own eyes how a professional Forex trader trades the markets.
The 1000pip Builder Membership is ordinarily a signal service for Forex trading. You will get all the facts you need to successfully comply with the trading signals, set your stop loss and take earnings as well as additional techniques and techniques!
You will get easy to use trading indicators for Forex Trades, including your entry, stop loss and take profit. Overall, the earnings target per months is 350 Pips, depending on your funding this can be a high profit per month! (In fact, there is by no means a guarantee, but the past months had been all between 600 – 1000 Pips).
>>>Know more about 1000pipbuilder
Your 1000pip builder membership gives you all in hand you want to start trading Forex with success. Read the directions and wait for the first signals. You can trade them inside your demo account first, so you can take a look at the performance before you make investments real money!
Features:
  • Free Trial
  • Forex signals sent by email and SMS
  • Entry price, take profit and stop loss provided
  • Suitable for all time zones (signals sent over 24 hours)
  • MyFXBook verified performance
  • 10 years of investment experience
  • Target 300-400 pips per month
Pricing:
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VISIT 1000ipbuilder here

2. DDMarkets

Digital Derivatives Markets (DDMarkets) have been providing trade alert offerings since May 2014 - fully documenting their change ideas in an open and transparent manner.
September 2020 performance report for DD Markets.
Their manner is simple: carry out extensive research, share their evaluation and then deliver a trading sign when triggered. Once issued, daily updates on the trade are despatched to members via email.
It's essential to note that DDMarkets do not tolerate floating in an open drawdown in an effort to earnings at any cost - a common method used by less professional providers to 'fudge' performance statistics.
Verified Statistics: Not independently verified.
Price: plans from $74.40 per month.
Year Founded: 2014
Suitable for Beginners: Yes, (includes handy to follow trade analysis)
VISIT
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3. JKonFX

If you are looking or a forex signal service with a reliable (and profitable) music record you can't go previous Joel Kruger and the team at JKonFX.
Trading performance file for JKonFX.
Joel has delivered a reputable +59.18% journal performance for 2016, imparting real-time technical and fundamental insights, in an extremely obvious manner, to their 30,000+ subscriber base. Considered a low-frequency trader, alerts are only a small phase of the overall JKonFX subscription. If you're searching for hundreds of signals, you may want to consider other options.
Verified Statistics: Not independently verified.
Price: plans from $30 per month.
Year Founded: 2014
Suitable for Beginners: Yes, (includes convenient to follow videos updates).
VISIT

The importance of signals to invest in Forex

Once we have known what Forex signals are, we must comment on the importance of these alerts in relation to our operations.
As we have already told you in the previous paragraph, having a system of signals to be able to invest is quite advantageous, since, through these alerts, we will obtain quality information so that our operations end up being a true success.

»Use of signals for beginners and experts

In this sense, we have to say that one of the main advantages of Forex signals is that they can be used by both beginners and trading professionals.
As many as others can benefit from using a trading signal system because the more information and resources we have in our hands. The greater probability of success we will have. Let's see how beginners and experts can take advantage of alerts:
  • Beginners: for inexperienced these alerts become even more important since they will thus have an additional tool that will guide them to carry out all operations in the Forex market.
  • Professionals: In the same way, professionals are also recommended to make use of these alerts, so they have adequate information to continue bringing their investments to fruition.
Now that we know that both beginners and experts can use forex signals to invest, let's see what other advantages they have.

»Trading automation

When we dedicate ourselves to working in the financial world, none of us can spend 24 hours in front of the computer waiting to perform the perfect operation, it is impossible.
That is why Forex signals are important, because, in order to carry out our investments, all we will have to do is wait for those signals to arrive, be attentive to all the alerts we receive, and thus, operate at the right time according to the opportunities that have arisen.
It is fantastic to have a tool like this one that makes our work easier in this regard.

»Carry out profitable Forex operations

These signals are also important, because the vast majority of them are usually quite profitable, for this reason, we must get an alert system that provides us with accurate information so that our operations can bring us great benefits.
But in addition, these Forex signals have an added value and that is that they are very easy to understand, therefore, we will have a very useful tool at hand that will not be complicated and will end up being a very beneficial weapon for us.

»Decision support analysis

A system of currency market signals is also very important because it will help us to make our subsequent decisions.
We cannot forget that, to carry out any type of operation in this market, previously, we must meditate well and know the exact moment when we will know that our investments are going to bring us profits .
Therefore, all the information provided by these alerts will be a fantastic basis for future operations that we are going to carry out.

»Trading Signals made by professionals

Finally, we have to recall the idea that these signals are made by the best professionals. Financial experts who know perfectly how to analyze the movements that occur in the market and changes in prices.
Hence the importance of alerts, since they are very reliable and are presented as a necessary tool to operate in Forex and that our operations are as profitable as possible.

What should a signal provider be like?

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As you have seen, Forex signal systems are really important for our operations to bring us many benefits. For this reason, at present, there are multiple platforms that offer us these financial services so that investing in currencies is very simple and fast.
Before telling you about the main services that we currently have available in the market, it is recommended that you know what are the main characteristics that a good signal provider should have, so that, at the time of your choice, you are clear that you have selected one of the best systems.

»Must send us information on the main currency pairs

In this sense, one of the first things we have to comment on is that a good signal provider, at a minimum, must send us alerts that offer us information about the 6 main currencies, in this case, we refer to the euro, dollar, The pound, the yen, the Swiss franc, and the Canadian dollar.
Of course, the data you provide us will be related to the pairs that make up all these currencies. Although we can also find systems that offer us information about other minorities, but as we have said, at a minimum, we must know these 6.

»Trading tools to operate better

Likewise, signal providers must also provide us with a large number of tools so that we can learn more about the Forex market.
We refer, for example, to technical analysis above all, which will help us to develop our own strategies to be able to operate in this market.
These analyzes are always prepared by professionals and study, mainly, the assets that we have available to invest.

»Different Forex signals reception channels

They must also make available to us different ways through which they will send us the Forex signals, the usual thing is that we can acquire them through the platform's website, or by a text message and even through our email.
In addition, it is recommended that the signal system we choose sends us a large number of alerts throughout the day, in order to have a wide range of possibilities.

»Free account and customer service

Other aspects that we must take into account to choose a good signal provider is whether we have the option of receiving, for a limited time, alerts for free or the profitability of the signals they emit to us.
Similarly, a final aspect that we must emphasize is that a good signal system must also have excellent customer service, which is available to us 24 hours a day and that we can contact them at through an email, a phone number, or a live chat, for greater immediacy.
Well, having said all this, in our last section we are going to tell you which are the best services currently on the market. That is, the most suitable Forex signal platforms to be able to work with them and carry out good operations. In this case, we will talk about ForexPro Signals, 365 Signals and Binary Signals.

Forex Signals Reddit: conclusion

To be able to invest properly in the Forex market, it is convenient that we get a signal system that provides us with all the necessary information about this market. It must be remembered that Forex is a very volatile market and therefore, many movements tend to occur quickly.
Asset prices can change in a matter of seconds, hence the importance of having a system that helps us analyze the market and thus know, what is the right time for us to start operating.
Therefore, although there are currently many signal systems that can offer us good services, the three that we have mentioned above are the ones that are best valued by users, which is why they are the best signal providers that we can choose to carry out. our investments.
Most of these alerts are quite profitable and in addition, these systems usually emit a large number of signals per day with full guarantees. For all this, SignalsForexPro, Signals365, or SignalsBinary are presented as fundamental tools so that we can obtain a greater number of benefits when we carry out our operations in the currency market.
submitted by kayakero to makemoneyforexreddit [link] [comments]

Beginner’s Guide to BitMEX

Beginner’s Guide to BitMEX

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Founded by HDR Global Trading Limited (which in turn was founded by former bankers Arthur Hayes, Samuel Reed and Ben Delo) in 2014, BitMEX is a trading platform operating around the world and registered in the Seychelles.
Meaning Bitcoin Mercantile Exchange, BitMEX is one of the largest Bitcoin trading platforms currently operating, with a daily trading volume of over 35,000 BTC and over 540,000 accesses monthly and a trading history of over $34 billion worth of Bitcoin since its inception.

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Unlike many other trading exchanges, BitMEX only accepts deposits through Bitcoin, which can then be used to purchase a variety of other cryptocurrencies. BitMEX specialises in sophisticated financial operations such as margin trading, which is trading with leverage. Like many of the exchanges that operate through cryptocurrencies, BitMEX is currently unregulated in any jurisdiction.
Visit BitMEX

How to Sign Up to BitMEX

In order to create an account on BitMEX, users first have to register with the website. Registration only requires an email address, the email address must be a genuine address as users will receive an email to confirm registration in order to verify the account. Once users are registered, there are no trading limits. Traders must be at least 18 years of age to sign up.
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However, it should be noted that BitMEX does not accept any US-based traders and will use IP checks to verify that users are not in the US. While some US users have bypassed this with the use of a VPN, it is not recommended that US individuals sign up to the BitMEX service, especially given the fact that alternative exchanges are available to service US customers that function within the US legal framework.
How to Use BitMEX
BitMEX allows users to trade cryptocurrencies against a number of fiat currencies, namely the US Dollar, the Japanese Yen and the Chinese Yuan. BitMEX allows users to trade a number of different cryptocurrencies, namely Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Dash, Ethereum, Ethereum Classic, Litecoin, Monero, Ripple, Tezos and Zcash.
The trading platform on BitMEX is very intuitive and easy to use for those familiar with similar markets. However, it is not for the beginner. The interface does look a little dated when compared to newer exchanges like Binance and Kucoin’s.
Once users have signed up to the platform, they should click on Trade, and all the trading instruments will be displayed beneath.
Clicking on the particular instrument opens the orderbook, recent trades, and the order slip on the left. The order book shows three columns – the bid value for the underlying asset, the quantity of the order, and the total USD value of all orders, both short and long.
The widgets on the trading platform can be changed according to the user’s viewing preferences, allowing users to have full control on what is displayed. It also has a built in feature that provides for TradingView charting. This offers a wide range of charting tool and is considered to be an improvement on many of the offering available from many of its competitors.
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Once trades are made, all orders can be easily viewed in the trading platform interface. There are tabs where users can select their Active Orders, see the Stops that are in place, check the Orders Filled (total or partially) and the trade history. On the Active Orders and Stops tabs, traders can cancel any order, by clicking the “Cancel” button. Users also see all currently open positions, with an analysis if it is in the black or red.
BitMEX uses a method called auto-deleveraging which BitMEX uses to ensure that liquidated positions are able to be closed even in a volatile market. Auto-deleveraging means that if a position bankrupts without available liquidity, the positive side of the position deleverages, in order of profitability and leverage, the highest leveraged position first in queue. Traders are always shown where they sit in the auto-deleveraging queue, if such is needed.
Although the BitMEX platform is optimized for mobile, it only has an Android app (which is not official). There is no iOS app available at present. However, it is recommended that users use it on the desktop if possible.
BitMEX offers a variety of order types for users:
  • Limit Order (the order is fulfilled if the given price is achieved);
  • Market Order (the order is executed at current market price);
  • Stop Limit Order (like a stop order, but allows users to set the price of the Order once the Stop Price is triggered);
  • Stop Market Order (this is a stop order that does not enter the order book, remain unseen until the market reaches the trigger);
  • Trailing Stop Order (it is similar to a Stop Market order, but here users set a trailing value that is used to place the market order);
  • Take Profit Limit Order (this can be used, similarly to a Stop Order, to set a target price on a position. In this case, it is in respect of making gains, rather than cutting losses);
  • Take Profit Market Order (same as the previous type, but in this case, the order triggered will be a market order, and not a limit one)
The exchange offers margin trading in all of the cryptocurrencies displayed on the website. It also offers to trade with futures and derivatives – swaps.

Futures and Swaps

A futures contract is an agreement to buy or sell a given asset in the future at a predetermined price. On BitMEX, users can leverage up to 100x on certain contracts.
Perpetual swaps are similar to futures, except that there is no expiry date for them and no settlement. Additionally, they trade close to the underlying reference Index Price, unlike futures, which may diverge substantially from the Index Price.
BitMEX also offers Binary series contracts, which are prediction-based contracts which can only settle at either 0 or 100. In essence, the Binary series contracts are a more complicated way of making a bet on a given event.
The only Binary series betting instrument currently available is related to the next 1mb block on the Bitcoin blockchain. Binary series contracts are traded with no leverage, a 0% maker fee, a 0.25% taker fee and 0.25% settlement fee.

Bitmex Leverage

BitMEX allows its traders to leverage their position on the platform. Leverage is the ability to place orders that are bigger than the users’ existing balance. This could lead to a higher profit in comparison when placing an order with only the wallet balance. Trading in such conditions is called “Margin Trading.”
There are two types of Margin Trading: Isolated and Cross-Margin. The former allows the user to select the amount of money in their wallet that should be used to hold their position after an order is placed. However, the latter provides that all of the money in the users’ wallet can be used to hold their position, and therefore should be treated with extreme caution.
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The BitMEX platform allows users to set their leverage level by using the leverage slider. A maximum leverage of 1:100 is available (on Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash). This is quite a high level of leverage for cryptocurrencies, with the average offered by other exchanges rarely exceeding 1:20.

BitMEX Fees

For traditional futures trading, BitMEX has a straightforward fee schedule. As noted, in terms of leverage offered, BitMEX offers up to 100% leverage, with the amount off leverage varying from product to product.
However, it should be noted that trading at the highest leverages is sophisticated and is intended for professional investors that are familiar with speculative trading. The fees and leverage are as follows:
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However, there are additional fees for hidden / iceberg orders. A hidden order pays the taker fee until the entire hidden quantity is completely executed. Then, the order will become normal, and the user will receive the maker rebate for the non-hidden amount.

Deposits and Withdrawals

BitMEX does not charge fees on deposits or withdrawals. However, when withdrawing Bitcoin, the minimum Network fee is based on blockchain load. The only costs therefore are those of the banks or the cryptocurrency networks.
As noted previously, BitMEX only accepts deposits in Bitcoin and therefore Bitcoin serves as collateral on trading contracts, regardless of whether or not the trade involves Bitcoin.
The minimum deposit is 0.001 BTC. There are no limits on withdrawals, but withdrawals can also be in Bitcoin only. To make a withdrawal, all that users need to do is insert the amount to withdraw and the wallet address to complete the transfer.
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Deposits can be made 24/7 but withdrawals are processed by hand at a recurring time once per day. The hand processed withdrawals are intended to increase the security levels of users’ funds by providing extra time (and email notice) to cancel any fraudulent withdrawal requests, as well as bypassing the use of automated systems & hot wallets which may be more prone to compromise.

Supported Currencies

BitMEX operates as a crypto to crypto exchange and makes use of a Bitcoin-in/Bitcoin-out structure. Therefore, platform users are currently unable to use fiat currencies for any payments or transfers, however, a plus side of this is that there are no limits for trading and the exchange incorporates trading pairs linked to the US Dollar (XBT), Japanese Yen (XBJ), and Chinese Yuan (XBC).
BitMEX supports the following cryptocurrencies:
  • Bitcoin (XBT)
  • Bitcoin Cash (BCH)
  • Ethereum (ETH)
  • Ethereum Classic (ETC)
  • Litecoin (LTC)
  • Ripple Token (XRP)
  • Monero (XMR)
  • Dash (DASH)
  • Zcash (ZEC)
  • Cardano (ADA)
  • Tron (TRX)
  • EOS Token (EOS)
BitMEX also offers leverage options on the following coins:
  • 5x: Zcash (ZEC)
  • 20x : Ripple (XRP),Bitcoin Cash (BCH), Cardano (ADA), EOS Token (EOS), Tron (TRX)
  • 25x: Monero (XMR)
  • 33x: Litecoin (LTC)
  • 50x: Ethereum (ETH)
  • 100x: Bitcoin (XBT), Bitcoin / Yen (XBJ), Bitcoin / Yuan (XBC)

Trading Technologies International Partnership

HDR Global Trading, the company which owns BitMEX, has recently announced a partnership with Trading Technologies International, Inc. (TT), a leading international high-performance trading software provider.
The TT platform is designed specifically for professional traders, brokers, and market-access providers, and incorporates a wide variety of trading tools and analytical indicators that allow even the most advanced traders to customize the software to suit their unique trading styles. The TT platform also provides traders with global market access and trade execution through its privately managed infrastructure and the partnership will see BitMEX users gaining access to the trading tools on all BitMEX products, including the popular XBT/USD Perpetual Swap pairing.
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The BitMEX Insurance Fund

The ability to trade on leverage is one of the exchange’s main selling points and offering leverage and providing the opportunity for traders to trade against each other may result in a situation where the winners do not receive all of their expected profits. As a result of the amounts of leverage involved, it’s possible that the losers may not have enough margin in their positions to pay the winners.
Traditional exchanges like the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) offset this problem by utilizing multiple layers of protection and cryptocurrency trading platforms offering leverage cannot currently match the levels of protection provided to winning traders.
In addition, cryptocurrency exchanges offering leveraged trades propose a capped downside and unlimited upside on a highly volatile asset with the caveat being that on occasion, there may not be enough funds in the system to pay out the winners.
To help solve this problem, BitMEX has developed an insurance fund system, and when a trader has an open leveraged position, their position is forcefully closed or liquidated when their maintenance margin is too low.
Here, a trader’s profit and loss does not reflect the actual price their position was closed on the market, and with BitMEX when a trader is liquidated, their equity associated with the position drops down to zero.
In the following example, the trader has taken a 100x long position. In the event that the mark price of Bitcoin falls to $3,980 (by 0.5%), then the position gets liquidated with the 100 Bitcoin position needing to be sold on the market.
This means that it does not matter what price this trade executes at, namely if it’s $3,995 or $3,000, as from the view of the liquidated trader, regardless of the price, they lose all the equity they had in their position, and lose the entire one Bitcoin.
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Assuming there is a fully liquid market, the bid/ask spread should be tighter than the maintenance margin. Here, liquidations manifest as contributions to the insurance fund (e.g. if the maintenance margin is 50bps, but the market is 1bp wide), and the insurance fund should rise by close to the same amount as the maintenance margin when a position is liquidated. In this scenario, as long as healthy liquid markets persist, the insurance fund should continue its steady growth.
The following graphs further illustrate the example, and in the first chart, market conditions are healthy with a narrow bid/ask spread (just $2) at the time of liquidation. Here, the closing trade occurs at a higher price than the bankruptcy price (the price where the margin balance is zero) and the insurance fund benefits.
Illustrative example of an insurance contribution – Long 100x with 1 BTC collateral
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(Note: The above illustration is based on opening a 100x long position at $4,000 per BTC and 1 Bitcoin of collateral. The illustration is an oversimplification and ignores factors such as fees and other adjustments.
The bid and offer prices represent the state of the order book at the time of liquidation. The closing trade price is $3,978, representing $1 of slippage compared to the $3,979 bid price at the time of liquidation.)
The second chart shows a wide bid/ask spread at the time of liquidation, here, the closing trade takes place at a lower price than the bankruptcy price, and the insurance fund is used to make sure that winning traders receive their expected profits.
This works to stabilize the potential for returns as there is no guarantee that healthy market conditions can continue, especially during periods of heightened price volatility. During these periods, it’s actually possible that the insurance fund can be used up than it is built up.
Illustrative example of an insurance depletion – Long 100x with 1 BTC collateral
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(Notes: The above illustration is based on opening a 100x long position at $4,000 per BTC and 1 Bitcoin of collateral. The illustration is an oversimplification and ignores factors such as fees and other adjustments.
The bid and offer prices represent the state of the order book at the time of liquidation. The closing trade price is $3,800, representing $20 of slippage compared to the $3,820 bid price at the time of liquidation.)
The exchange declared in February 2019, that the BitMEX insurance fund retained close to 21,000 Bitcoin (around $70 million based on Bitcoin spot prices at the time).
This figure represents just 0.007% of BitMEX’s notional annual trading volume, which has been quoted as being approximately $1 trillion. This is higher than the insurance funds as a proportion of trading volume of the CME, and therefore, winning traders on BitMEX are exposed to much larger risks than CME traders as:
  • BitMEX does not have clearing members with large balance sheets and traders are directly exposed to each other.
  • BitMEX does not demand payments from traders with negative account balances.
  • The underlying instruments on BitMEX are more volatile than the more traditional instruments available on CME.
Therefore, with the insurance fund remaining capitalized, the system effectively with participants who get liquidated paying for liquidations, or a losers pay for losers mechanism.
This system may appear controversial as first, though some may argue that there is a degree of uniformity to it. It’s also worth noting that the exchange also makes use of Auto Deleveraging which means that on occasion, leveraged positions in profit can still be reduced during certain time periods if a liquidated order cannot be executed in the market.
More adventurous traders should note that while the insurance fund holds 21,000 Bitcoin, worth approximately 0.1% of the total Bitcoin supply, BitMEX still doesn’t offer the same level of guarantees to winning traders that are provided by more traditional leveraged trading platforms.
Given the inherent volatility of the cryptocurrency market, there remains some possibility that the fund gets drained down to zero despite its current size. This may result in more successful traders lacking confidence in the platform and choosing to limit their exposure in the event of BitMEX being unable to compensate winning traders.

How suitable is BitMEX for Beginners?

BitMEX generates high Bitcoin trading levels, and also attracts good levels of volume across other crypto-to-crypto transfers. This helps to maintain a buzz around the exchange, and BitMEX also employs relatively low trading fees, and is available round the world (except to US inhabitants).
This helps to attract the attention of people new to the process of trading on leverage and when getting started on the platform there are 5 main navigation Tabs to get used to:
  • **Trade:**The trading dashboard of BitMEX. This tab allows you to select your preferred trading instrument, and choose leverage, as well as place and cancel orders. You can also see your position information and view key information in the contract details.
  • **Account:**Here, all your account information is displayed including available Bitcoin margin balances, deposits and withdrawals, and trade history.
  • **Contracts:**This tab covers further instrument information including funding history, contract sizes; leverage offered expiry, underlying reference Price Index data, and other key features.
  • **References:**This resource centre allows you to learn about futures, perpetual contracts, position marking, and liquidation.
  • **API:**From here you can set up an API connection with BitMEX, and utilize the REST API and WebSocket API.
BitMEX also employs 24/7 customer support and the team can also be contacted on their Twitter and Reddit accounts.
In addition, BitMEX provides a variety of educational resources including an FAQ section, Futures guides, Perpetual Contracts guides, and further resources in the “References” account tab.
For users looking for more in depth analysis, the BitMEX blog produces high level descriptions of a number of subjects and has garnered a good reputation among the cryptocurrency community.
Most importantly, the exchange also maintains a testnet platform, built on top of testnet Bitcoin, which allows anyone to try out programs and strategies before moving on to the live exchange.
This is crucial as despite the wealth of resources available, BitMEX is not really suitable for beginners, and margin trading, futures contracts and swaps are best left to experienced, professional or institutional traders.
Margin trading and choosing to engage in leveraged activity are risky processes and even more advanced traders can describe the process as a high risk and high reward “game”. New entrants to the sector should spend a considerable amount of time learning about margin trading and testing out strategies before considering whether to open a live account.

Is BitMEX Safe?

BitMEX is widely considered to have strong levels of security. The platform uses multi-signature deposits and withdrawal schemes which can only be used by BitMEX partners. BitMEX also utilises Amazon Web Services to protect the servers with text messages and two-factor authentication, as well as hardware tokens.
BitMEX also has a system for risk checks, which requires that the sum of all account holdings on the website must be zero. If it’s not, all trading is immediately halted. As noted previously, withdrawals are all individually hand-checked by employees, and private keys are never stored in the cloud. Deposit addresses are externally verified to make sure that they contain matching keys. If they do not, there is an immediate system shutdown.
https://preview.redd.it/t04qs3484cc41.jpg?width=808&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a3b106cbc9116713dcdd5e908c00b555fd704ee6
In addition, the BitMEX trading platform is written in kdb+, a database and toolset popular amongst major banks in high frequency trading applications. The BitMEX engine appears to be faster and more reliable than some of its competitors, such as Poloniex and Bittrex.
They have email notifications, and PGP encryption is used for all communication.
The exchange hasn’t been hacked in the past.

How Secure is the platform?

As previously mentioned, BitMEX is considered to be a safe exchange and incorporates a number of security protocols that are becoming standard among the sector’s leading exchanges. In addition to making use of Amazon Web Services’ cloud security, all the exchange’s systems can only be accessed after passing through multiple forms of authentication, and individual systems are only able to communicate with each other across approved and monitored channels.
Communication is also further secured as the exchange provides optional PGP encryption for all automated emails, and users can insert their PGP public key into the form inside their accounts.
Once set up, BitMEX will encrypt and sign all the automated emails sent by you or to your account by the [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) email address. Users can also initiate secure conversations with the support team by using the email address and public key on the Technical Contact, and the team have made their automated system’s PGP key available for verification in their Security Section.
The platform’s trading engine is written in kdb+, a database and toolset used by leading financial institutions in high-frequency trading applications, and the speed and reliability of the engine is also used to perform a full risk check after every order placement, trade, settlement, deposit, and withdrawal.
All accounts in the system must consistently sum to zero, and if this does not happen then trading on the platform is immediately halted for all users.
With regards to wallet security, BitMEX makes use of a multisignature deposit and withdrawal scheme, and all exchange addresses are multisignature by default with all storage being kept offline. Private keys are not stored on any cloud servers and deep cold storage is used for the majority of funds.
Furthermore, all deposit addresses sent by the BitMEX system are verified by an external service that works to ensure that they contain the keys controlled by the founders, and in the event that the public keys differ, the system is immediately shut down and trading halted. The exchange’s security practices also see that every withdrawal is audited by hand by a minimum of two employees before being sent out.

BitMEX Customer Support

The trading platform has a 24/7 support on multiple channels, including email, ticket systems and social media. The typical response time from the customer support team is about one hour, and feedback on the customer support generally suggest that the customer service responses are helpful and are not restricted to automated responses.
https://preview.redd.it/8k81zl0a4cc41.jpg?width=808&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e30e5b7ca93d2931f49e2dc84025f2fda386eab1
The BitMEX also offers a knowledge base and FAQs which, although they are not necessarily always helpful, may assist and direct users towards the necessary channels to obtain assistance.
BitMEX also offers trading guides which can be accessed here

Conclusion

There would appear to be few complaints online about BitMEX, with most issues relating to technical matters or about the complexities of using the website. Older complaints also appeared to include issues relating to low liquidity, but this no longer appears to be an issue.
BitMEX is clearly not a platform that is not intended for the amateur investor. The interface is complex and therefore it can be very difficult for users to get used to the platform and to even navigate the website.
However, the platform does provide a wide range of tools and once users have experience of the platform they will appreciate the wide range of information that the platform provides.
Visit BitMEX
submitted by bitmex_register to u/bitmex_register [link] [comments]

Significant Dualities, in Nature and in Societies

Caution: This article is a long read, and goes in many directions. For the curious mind, it's a lively mindfield to explore and come back again and again. If you prefer poster images, never mind.
Some links occur here mostly because they're interesting, and somehow are part of a duality.
For me, duality means at least two things which are associated somehow, but considered separately are different. We don't need to count above 2, like say 'polyality' because obviously the idea of divergence, or fork, is able to have many 'tines' or separate paths. (See Tuning Fork, below.) We don't have time to cover every possibility, so let's just stick with 2, the most simple case of multiple. (See Rhizome Philosophy for an interesting alternative to this binary association structure. Also the paragraph titled "Association Schemes" in Exploiting the Pyramid.)
We aren't considering pairs of identicals, like dual wheels, two of exactly the same thing, but maybe if there is a small difference, or doubtful meaning between similar things (see dual internal organs under anatomy, below).
Sometimes the association between things is not obvious, in which case we better explain, but most dualities are obviously two tined. Let it go at that.
Tuning Fork, a synchronous dynamic opposition, and also an acoustic device having a dual nature similar to both stringed eg. Piano and other percussion devices (eg. Glockenspiel. See also disambiguation of similar percussion instruments. Tuning forks have the advantage of needing no containment structure because their duality counter-balances the vibrations. All the other devices have a single resonator for each tone.
Dualism (disambiguation index) | wkpd
Fake Word Similarities Dual not confused with duel Dual not confused with do all. (Obvious.)
Duality expressions
flip side
double edged sword
Janus faced
dark side-- bright side
balance equilibrium equation
opposites (word list)
positive-negative (photography))
bilateral symmetry
mirror
images, real vs virtual
paired symbols
yin-yang (principle) yin-yang (history)
Dual Obelisks, ancient Egypt (had different inscriptions on each)
duality as found on tumblr (index)
hypocrisy vs sincerity (philosophical mirror) hypocrisy sincerity sin cere means without wax, not a crackpot idea
Being a Leftist Means never having to Say You’re Sorry title of this essay inspired by a 1970s witticism
dual-process theory of human intelligence
The Balance (disambiguation index) | wkpd, in the physical, a two-sided weight comparator, in the abstract, the equation... possibly the most significant model (3) of reality ever conceived.
Exercising Equations, For Example...
How can things fly, and boats sail upwind?
Bernoulli's two-path model of lift vs Newton's Reaction of air-inertia model of force
Previous link models a lifting surface as a flat-plane and air is deflected in a single direction. Modeling a lifting surface as an arc also works, but no simple reference explaining this is found. So I'm going to do it, very briefly...
Imagine a wing, or sail, is a simple arc, and a small sample of air passing by it is like a stone on a string.. Air has mass, therefore thrusting it around a curve causes a reaction force opposite the center of the curve (aka lift.)
This is an important example because large commercial aircraft wings are complex mechanical devices that change shape depending on speed (scroll down to Flaps). At low speed, the wing simulates an arc, and a sail is made loose to form a larger curve. (Sailing in light airs, reduce tension on halyards, while a tight (more flat) sail configuration is called 'close-hauled').
Binary Thinking, True or False?
What is it? | qra
Binary opposition WARNING: Cultural Marxism, deconstruction
False dilemma, an obstacle to effective negotiation, in which nuances and concessions should be considered, not "take it or leave it" ultimatums
GOOD, BAD, UGLY? 2015 | stnfd
Example: Evolution vs Religious Tradition (Creationism) Purpose or no Purpose, that's the question: Darwinism: Survival without Purpose 2007 Another example from Mark Driscoll
Biblical Christianity requires black-and-white thinking because it is dualistic... Mainstream culture refuses to allow any categories because that would mean making distinctions, which ultimately ends in making value judgments. (which is DISCRIMINATION!) For the record, I am in favor of discrimination, not by race, but by behavior record. Discriminating Evolution from Intelligent Design (the flaws clause) 7 min
Boolean Logic
technical: Bifurcation theory
Binary Options
Nature
Wave–particle duality | wkpd Wave–particle duality (article index) | scidly Light and Sound CGI video, wave-particle duality 25 min
position vs momentum (uncertainty principle)
observer vs object observed (anthropic principle)
Energy-mass duality | wkpd
Mutual-Influence Orbital Oscillation Patterns
Mass Duality vs Time, Effects
Lunacy; tidal lock one side seen, one side hidden
Orbital resonance
Example: Earth-Luna orbit each other; Luna's mass is 0.0123 of earth's. Earth oscillates due to Luna, but radius of orbit is less than Earth's radius, so it's less obvious. See Barycenter. See also NASA, Moon, Luna's orbit, and Libration. https://music.stackexchange.com/questions/24243/what-is-the-difference-between-a-xylophone-a-glockenspiel-marimba-a-xylorimba#24245
Earth Mother Goddess Duo: Gaia/Medea Hypothesis
anatomy
Internal Organ Duals, Why? What are paired organs? (lists) 2018 | qra Symmetry Why do we have two of some organs, but not all? 2014 | stkxchg
Respiratory-Circulatory System Overlap (dual function) Venous Blood forced by thoracic-ambient pressure differential... Heart and lungs are together in the pulmonary cavity, experience simultaneous pressure fluctuations (scroll down to 'Respiratory Pump'), thus fluid influx and egress (air is a fluid). Respiration includes blood circulation, the respiratory and circulatory systems are inextricably linked.
Note that previous articles omit hydrostatic pressure which influences venous circulation (fluid pressure is higher at lower elevations, depending on density; eg. Hg (used in barometers) is 13.534g/cm3, blood is 1.06 g/cm3 (slightly more than water)). When you experience tingling, numbness or swelling due to inactivity, raise the inactive limbs above heart, gravity will help the circulation. Also, dizziness might be due to pressure variations in brain, such as suddenly standing upright after kneeling for awhile. Move more slowly.
Notice that we have only indirect control over heart-rate. We can increase physical activity (especially respiration) voluntarily, then the autonomous nerve system takes care of the rates.
Sex
Origin of Sex
Reproduction, Evolution of
When Did Sex Become Fun? 2016 | spns
A Brief History of Human Sex 2006 | lvsci
Chromosome Duality predicts longevity, reliably Scientists Discover Why women live longer Petrov 8 min
The sex with the reduced sex chromosome dies earlier: a comparison across the tree of life Mar.2020
polarity
electrical
chemical
Polarization (waves) see also Introduction to Polarized Light
magnetic geomagnetic pole
geographic
antipodes
Bi-polar Disorder (mental health)
Dysphoric Mania in Bipolar Disorder (reality IS bipolar, see previous links)
dysphoria is a profound state of unease or a general dissatisfaction with life
split personality, eg. Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde
Euphoria vs Dysphoria
psycho-active stimulants create euphoria 10 BEST LEGAL EUPHORIC HIGH HERBS 2017 See also 4 Most Euphoric Nootropics
What are Nootropics?
What Is Rejection Sensitive Dysphoria?
Society
DUO - Animation Short Film (Fr) 2014 - GOBELINS (for some performance artists, life is a matter of trust) 3.5 min
Dual inheritance theory
Moral Duality
Bi-polar Disorder (social inequality), topic continues under heading "Double Standard of Morality" (scroll down)... A simple two-tier arrangement of mucked-up social "order" which originated in prehistoric times, a result of a conquering group, aka "ruling class" which maintains a dominant position (see Dominance as social construct). The privileged class takes advantage in several ways, one of which allows THEM to commit crimes against US without consequence, but the reverse situation is dealt with harshly.
Assuming there is an ecological crisis, Culture Dysphoria 2015
The historic task of cultural change is to resolve throughout the dominant culture the distortions of rationalist human/nature dualisms that deny our ecological embodiment and membership of the global ecological community.
In Reality, trends toward the Cosmopolitan Cluster are profoundly dissatisfying to conservative individuals. The CC issue is a case of 'the melting pot'. see also Cosmopolitan Cluster
The urban rural divide in the US and other complexities of polarization JUL.17,2019 | ToL
Indivi-DUAL
New idea: 'indivi', I'm going to premise means not divided, a singleton, and dual means two. That leads us to... a person is an undivided twosome, let's assume it means mind-body.
What exactly is the duality of human nature? | qra (trick question, see answer by Mike Brant, also good, Marcos Sheldon Padilla (per mind-body), see next link)
More about Mind-Body
UR2 CGPGrey 5 min
Dual Citizenship
list of, a good place to look for spies Editorial: The problem of dual citizenship 2014... “dual citizenship can present a security issue whether to permit access to classified information which affects recruitment, employment and assignments.” -US State Dept. In some cases, dual citizenship could disqualify an applicant for a sensitive position with the CIA or the State Department. (But not so for Israelis?)... List Israeli Dual Citizens in the US. 114th Congress; Bernie Sanders is on it 2016 | SotN
Binary Competition US vs THEM
Right vs Left (politics)
angels and demons 2 Class Social Hierarchy (Social Order Simplified)
Double Standard of Morality
... is a necessary adjunct to an US vs THEM ethic... because conflating US with THEM gives us cognitive dissonance; (social) equality is oblivion
The Dual Code of Morality
CHINA Strategy; moral dualities
Double Standard of Morality A necessary adjunct to US vs THEM ethic
social equality is oblivion
Bite the Hand that FED you; Ferried by kin-dness from Diaspora to Serendip, then They try to sink that "kin"ship
How the Jews Destroyed Germany | rjn
Jewish Declaration of War on Nazi Germany 1933
How The Jews Destroyed America | rjn
Nazi Jews- “Jew's own worst enemy!” 2007 Makow\rense
Cabalist Bankers Funded Hitler Via Wehrmacht Sep.2019 | svmls
Jewish Origins of Communism
For (Moses) Hess, the cardinal sin of the Judaic people was to abandon their heritage, while the cardinal objective of his Communism was to persuade all other people to abandon theirs…
Communism was the means for achieving Judaic supremacy over the gentiles. The gentiles were fated to be reduced to a faceless, deracinated mass. Capitalism was also capable of producing this effect, through free trade and the unfettered financialization of society, in which the management of money becomes a vast business in itself, and where the highest virtue, after obeisance to Judaism, is profit.
Israel’s New Ideology of Genocide 2018
ve’ahavta (“love your neighbor as yourself”) admonition to Goyim for regarding their Jewish neighbors; as for the Jews themselves, haba le-horgecha, hashkem le-horgo (“he who comes to kill you, rise early and kill him first” as told in 3 Little Pigs))
(wolf) attempts to trick third pig out of his (brick) house by asking to meet him at various places, but he is outwitted each time (3rd pig rises early, does the suggested task, and saves himself from being eaten)
Juice Dualities Juice, and DNA Melting Plot 1
back pages
A take-down of religious "morality" by a "believer"
To Serve the Greater Good, a Moral Philosophy for today++
Survey of Creativity and Destruction 1 Westciv
Garrett Hardin writes: "The essential characteristic of a tribe is that it should follow a double standard of morality -- one kind of behavior for in-group relations, another for out-group." -Wild Taboo "It is a tragic irony that discrimination has produced a species (homo sapiens) that now proposes to abandon the principle responsible for its rise to greatness."
Survey of Creativity and Destruction 8; Survival is Objective #1 in Evolution
Wild Taboo; Hardin/Masters
Competitive Exclusion Principle In the competition for living space and resources between two species (or two groups that occupy the same ecological niche), one will inevitably and inexorably eliminate the other. “In a finite universe – and the organisms of our world know no other – where the total number of organisms of both kinds cannot exceed a certain number… one species will necessarily replace the other species completely if the two species are “complete competitors, i.e., live the same kind of life.”
Historic Walls: Segregation and Security, defensive duo Disapproval of US.MX Border Barrier Design
Musical Duets (entertainment break from difficult study)
2x(Tico) no Fubá - Duo Siqueira Lima - guitar 4 Hands 3 min (includes brief encore) otra vez... 22x (Tico) Zequinha de Abreu arr. N Kossinskaya guitar quartet 4 min Anabel Montesinos & Marco Tamayo | Mozart, Rondo Alla Turca (w/audience) 3 min
Delibes, Lakmé - Duo des fleurs, Sabine Devieilhe & Marianne Crebassa, 3.8m views since Nov2017 4.5 min
Sun Quan The Emperor (Guzheng & Drum Ver.) 9.6m views since 2015 5 min
MUSA - Chandelier(Sia) & Wrecking Ball Mash - Guzheng and Zhongruan 3.3m views since 2015 3.5 min
Irish Senior Citizen Plays London Mall Piano... Then Magic Occurs; spontaneous Irish duet, Galway and Kerry 582k views since Jun.3.2019 (today is Jun.10) 7 min
Rasputin (Boney M) (viol/cello)- The Ayoub Sisters 3.4 min
A.Montesinos & M.Tamayo-Tres canciones de The Beatles-Stagione Internazionale di Chitarra Classica 9.9 min
Fool on the Hill; She's Leaving Home; Penny Lane;
Crazy - Patsy Cline Cover (Allison Young vocals, Josh Turner Guitar) 8.5k views 3.3 min
Dancing, an exercise in aesthetic, social duality
Grace on Ice Gabriella PAPADAKIS, Guillaume CIZERON, 2016 WC's music: Perfect- Ed Sheeran 4.3 min
A family exercise Derek and Julianne, music: "Unsteady" 2 min
Piano Duet, + 3 couples in traditional form Andrea & Matteo Bocelli, music: "Fall On Me" 2.6 min
Memorabilia (skips emotional intro) Jordan​ and​ ​Lindsay contemporary style, music: “Take Me Home” 1.3 min dance episode ends at 3:00
study notes
https://lorenzo-thinkingoutaloud.blogspot.com/2019/
https://simplicable.com/new/anti-competitive-practices
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=reality+dysphoria&atb=v81-4__&ia=web
submitted by acloudrift to todayplusplus [link] [comments]

[Steam] Winter Sale- Hidden Gems II; The Eleventh Hour

Personal Note: If you found any other hidden gems, or just have something to say, say it in the comments! It's the eleventh hour and people can actually hear you now!

Inspired somewhat by the recent post of Hidden Gems, I found that it's largely become completely congested. As such, I'll coalesce a lot of the deals posted by the guys there here, instead. I'll add others in case I find any of them in the original thread.
Personal Favorites
Puzzle Games found by crabbit
Random picks by ND1Razor
Unusual Games found by thelazyreader2015
RPGs loved by thelazyreader2015
Games Thrice Reposted by ParanoidAndroid1309
strikan33 posts the base list
With some other titles, Art4dinner recommends:
Gramis Silently slides:
A small list by thinkforaminute
Story rich, atmospheric game dragged into the light by BabyMustache
Less than a quid by Dux0r
A list of openish world RPGS from thelazyreader2015
Wishlist and personal favorites from gpt999
Misc Recommendations
With the large quantity of the old deals posted, I'd love to see any other hidden gems there might be out there. I'll post the two major things from the previous thread (The massive posts on Coop games and the massive post on games less than three dollars) below, and I'll post any other collections or mild reccomendations I find above.
submitted by Ullyses_R_Martinez to GameDeals [link] [comments]

“There's no better way to overpower a trickle of doubt than with a flood of naked truth” - A preview of the St Kilda Football Club’s 2016 season

St Kilda Football Club - 2016 Preview
/StKilda | Official Website
Fortius Quo Fidelius ("Strength through loyalty")
Premierships (1): 1966
Grand Finals (7): 1913, 1965, 1966, 1971, 1997, 2009, 2010
Finalists (26): 1907, 1908, 1913, 1918, 1929, 1939, 1961, 1963, 1965, 1966, 1968, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1991, 1992, 1997, 1998, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011
Wooden Spoons (27): Get Fucked
Club Summary
“Every Tuesday I sit down with the CEO and the Football Manager to discuss the season's agenda. Well, discuss is probably the wrong word. They talk while I sit quietly and imagine their lightly salted faces frying in a skillet.”
Captain: Nick Riewoldt
Coach: Alan Richardson
CEO: Matt Finnis
President: Peter Summers
Assistant Coaches: Danny Sexton (Director of Coaching & Strategy), Rohan Welsh (Defence), Adam Kingsley (Midfield), Aaron Hamill (Forwards), Adam Skrobalak (Ruck; part-time), Danny Frawley (Specialist Defence Coach; part-time).
2015 in Review
14th: 6 wins - 15 loses - 1 draw @ 78.4
Trevor Barker Medal: Jack Steven (2nd)
Best Clubman Award: Jarryn Geary
Best Emerging Player: Jack Lonie
Player Trademark Award: Maverick Weller
Leading Goal Kicker: Josh Bruce (50)
2015 Brought a host of experts predicting another dire year for the Saints, with some even predicting a winless season, and as BT would put it ‘Boy oh Boy’ they were wrong. Lead by the emergence of Josh Bruce, David Armitage and Jack Steven the Saints won 6 games, However more importantly were much more competitive against the best teams in the league. Unfortunately big losses to Carlton, West Coast and Sydney showed we have a lot of work to do
Season Highlights Round 6 vs Western Bulldogs WB 13.9 (87) def by St Kilda 14.10 (94)
Easily the craziest game of football I’ve ever seen, saw the Saints dominated by the Dogs for the whole first half. Until a 2nd half resurgence lead by 4 goals from Billings saw St Kilda come back from 55 points down to win.
Round 11 vs Melbourne
St Kilda 12.13 (85) d Melbourne 12.11(83)
While not the best quality game of the season this game was particularly entertaining with an amazingly tight last quarter where neither team could score until the last minute when a late Jeremy Howe goal put Melbourne ahead, only for Steven and Montagna to perform an amazing game winning goal with 11 seconds left
List Changes
“There are two kinds of pain. The sort of pain that makes you strong. Or useless pain. The sort of pain that's only suffering. I have no patience for useless things. Moments like this require someone who will act. To do the unpleasant thing. The necessary thing... [puts the player out of his misery] There, no more pain.”

OFF-SEASON MOVEMENT

IN OUT
TRADE Jake Carlisle & Pick #14 Pick #5 & Pick #24
Nathan Freeman & Pick #68 2016 2nd round pick & Pick #63
RETIRED Adam Schneider
DELISTED Tom Simpkin
Aaron Siposs
Daniel Markworth
Spencer White
Farren Ray
2015 NATIONAL DRAFT
Pick Player Original Club
#18 Jade Gresham Northern Knights
#40 Brandon White Dandenong Stingrays
#49 Bailey Rice Dandenong Stingrays
ROOKIE ELEVATIONS
Pick Player Original Club
Jack Sinclair St Kilda
ROOKIE DRAFT
Pick Player Original Club
#5 Nick O'Kearney Calder Cannons
#23 Nicholas Coughlan Albury Football Club
#40 Joshua Saunders St Kilda
2016 Preview
"For those of us climbing to the top of the food chain, there can be no mercy. There is but one rule: Hunt or be hunted."
2016 will mark another year of development for the St Kilda football club, Where we hope the young stars of the future will begin to take a greater control of the team from the veterans. We will likely see all three national draft selections make their debuts
Our midfield will be lead again by the core group of Armitage, Steven, Dunstan and Weller with Billings, Lonie and Sinclair beginning to spend more time in the Middle
Our Defence will be lead by Veterans Fisher and Dempster. Young Hugh Goddard should see a lot of action with Carlisle missing this year. Don’t be surprised to see Tom Lee thrown into the back line in 2016
Our Forward line will be led by Riewoldt Bruce. He is Love, he is Life. He will hopefully have support from, Billings, Ross, Lonie and Sinclair, with McCartin hopefully to have a solid second season. What we should expect to see is Riewoldt spending less time in the forward line and pushing up the ground more. Giving McCartin and Bruce more time to control the forward line
Senior List
“You may have all the money, Eddie, but I have all the accurate full forwards”
No Name Ht DoB Position
1 Tom Hickey 201 06.03.91 Ruck
2 Jake Carlisle 200 01.10.91 Defender
3 Jack Steven 180 28.03.90 Mid
4 Eli Templeton 181 19.08.95 Forward
5 Shane Savage 185 05.01.91 Defender
6 Seb Ross 187 07.05.93 Mid
7 Luke Dunstan 184 29.01.95 Mid
8 Blake Acres 190 07.10.95 Mid
9 Tom Lee 194 02.01.91 Defender
10 Nathan Freeman 183 16.06.95 Mid
11 Leigh Montagna 178 02.11.83 Mid
12 Nick Riewoldt 193 17.10.82 Forward
13 Jack Lonie 174 13.08.1996 Forward
14 Jarryn Geary 183 23.06.88 Defender
15 Jack Billings 184 18.08.95 Forward
16 Jack Newnes 184 24.02.93 Mid
17 Dylan Roberton 194 21.06.91 Defender
18 Billy Longer 202 12.05.93 Ruck
19 Sam Gilbert 194 19.08.86 Utility
20 David Armitage 183 16.06.88 Mid
21 Luke Delaney 194 24.06.89 Defender
22 Jade Gresham 177 24.08.97 Mid
23 Hugh Goddard 196 24.08.96 Utility
24 Sean Dempster 191 20.01.84 Defneder
25 Sam Fisher 191 10.07.82 Defender
26 Tom Curren 178 29.07.92 Mid
27 Josh Bruce 196 08.06.92 Forward
28 Tim Membrey 188 26.05.94 Forward
29 Jimmy Webster 188 28.06.93 Defender
30 Brodie Murdoch 188 21.01.94 Forward
31 Brandon White 188 13.01.97 Mid
32 Paddy McCartin 194 19.04.96 Forward
34 Nathan Wright 185 16.02.94 Defender
36 Daniel McKenzie 184 17.05.96 Mid
37 Bailey Rice 184 10.02.97 Defence
39 Cameron Shenton 188 27.09.90 Defender
40 Jack Sinclair 180 12.02.1995 Forward
41 Darren Minchington 179 09.12.93 Mid
42 Lewis Pierce 202 16.11.94 Ruck
44 Maverick Weller 182 13.02.92 Mid
Players to Watch
Darren Minchington - Picked up in 2012 as a rookie, Darren has come a long way, at his best he can be a line breaking, damaging half forward. Unfortunately he has found himself somewhat down the pecking order, last year he was competing with; Billings, Sinclair, Lonie, Membrey & others for a spot in the team, with the inclusion of J. Gresham & N. Freeman this year looks to be no simpler.
Jack Newnes - one of the most underrated players in the AFL. Even as a fan, I have a hard time remembering which number he is at games. He's always in our best 5, expect him to start to get noticed.
Patrick McCartin - How will last years number one pick adapt to AFL football after his first season? With Riewoldt likely to be spending more time on the wing and in the middle, look to see McCartin get more time and freedom inside the forward 50.
Nathan Freeman - The only top 10 pick from the 2013 draft who is yet to make his debut due to injuries. He looked to leave Collingwood for a fresh start. A Jet when healthy, he will be sure to add some much needed outside speed to the Saints midfield
Jake Carlisle - The Saints big recruit for 2015 got off to a poor start with a poorly timed line of coke, Hopefully with a big preseason he can atone for his sins and join the team in time for his club debut in round 3 What's next? Snap chatting himself doing lines of coke off of a burning drawf highschooler?
Players on notice
“Nobody’s a Boy Scout. Not even Boy Scouts”
Tom Lee - Not sure he has the talent / body to make it, he'll need one helluva year to stay on IMO.
Luke Delaney - Probably safe on the basis that Fisher will probably retire at the end of the year and we'd be screw'd if one of Goddard or Carlisle goes down.
the_penisy_mile
Darren Minchinton - Can turn the game on his head when he’s playing well, but also can never seem to get some consistent form, He needs to play so consistant footy or he’ll find himself as trade bait
Nousernames-left
“I'm not going to lie. I despise Snapchat. There. I've said it.”
Jake Carlisle - goes without saying. You fuck up, you fuck off.
meatpie_lover
Best 22
“I love this team. I love them more than sharks love blood”
FB: Dempster, Fisher, Geary
HB: Savage, Goddard, Webster
C:Montagna, Ross, Newnes
HF Sinclair, Riewoldt, Membery
FF Lonie, Bruce, McCartin
Foll Longer, Steven, Armitage
I/C Billings, Gilbert, Dunstan, Weller
Expectations for 2016
"When you've been in the wasteland as long as I have, you become immune to flattery"
Winning all the winnable games. We should put away Carlton, Brisbane, Gold Coast, Essendon and probably Melbourne. Mixing it with the middle of the pack otherwise
-meatpie_lover
Winning the winnable games / turning last years 10pt loses into wins. Also I'd like to see us go the whole season without a blowout loss
-the_penisy_mile
Being competitive for the whole games, no blowouts and Improved accuracy when goal kicking
-Nousermanes-left
Concerns for 2016
“Love of the club: most footballers are permanently chained to that slogan, club loyalty. But when you cozy up to opposition clubs and I find out, I will make that hypocrisy hurt.”
Goal Kicking - Countless times last year the Saints kicked themselves out of games, this needs to change if we want to be serious in pushing for finals and winning close games.
Midfielders - Too many times in 2014 when Steven or Armitage were taken out of the game via a tag, we struggled to get the ball forward and keep it there. we need to now if our current midfielders have the ability to hold their own against other strong midfields
“Dodoro and I have a good working relationship. Or used to. You can see he has a temper, but I can usually cut through that and reason with him. But I may have pushed him too far, which is worrisome. Friends make the worst enemies.”
Jake Carlisle - This trade can have a massive impact on the club. In particular how Jake Carlisle commits to this year off. There are two ways this could go, either he can enjoy the time off with a snapchat world tour in which he tests Coke from all around the world and he never plays a game for St Kilda. Or he works hard, keeps his nose clean literally and St Kilda get the defender we need while not paying him anywhere near as much as we first were.
Josh Bruce's Haircuts
The Normal
The Debut
The Glorious Man Bun
2016 options
Pass Mark
"Melbourne is blocking my way. Gold Coast at my heels. There can be no false steps now. The higher up the mountain, the more treacherous the path"
12-14. We've recruited carefully, got another pre-season into our young stars and should expect the improvement to continue. Getting 10/11 by season's end would take a fair bit of luck, so 12 is a good target.
meatpie_lover
10+ wins & percentage near 100
the_penisy_mile
11-13 & no end of season drop off
Contributors
-meatpie_lover
-madnessitellyou45
-the_penisy_mile
-jayjaybn
submitted by Nousernames-left to AFL [link] [comments]

Breakdown of Genderal Budget 2018

tldr; Marxist Gibs
In Budget 2018, no budget decision was taken without being informed by Gender-based Analysis Plus (GBA+).
What is GBA+?
GBA+ is an analytical tool used to assess how different groups of women, men and gender-diverse people may experience policies, programs and initiatives. The “plus“ acknowledges that GBA goes beyond biological (sex) and socio-cultural (gender) differences to consider intersecting factors such as race, ethnicity, age, disability and sexual orientation. GBA+ provides the foundation for gender budgeting—ensuring that the impacts of individual budget proposals on different groups of people are understood, supporting better policy-making, priority-setting and decision-making
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Budget 2018 goes further, integrating considerations of gender impacts at each step of the budgeting process, and introducing a new Gender Results Framework. This Framework includes goals and indicators that will guide the Government’s decisions and measure Canada’s progress in achieving greater gender equality. And to ensure that gender remains a key consideration for future governments, the Government will introduce new GBA+ legislation to make gender budgeting a permanent part of the federal budget-making process
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The Government will ask the Standing Committee on Procedure and House Affairs to examine making it a requirement that when any Minister of Finance tables a Budget in the House of Commons, a GBA+ analysis of the budget documents must be tabled concurrently
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To strengthen Canada’s ongoing capacity to apply the gender and diversity lens, the Government will make Status of Women Canada an official Department of the Government of Canada
Pay Gap
In Canada today, women earn 31 per cent less than men do. Put another way, the median income for women is $28,120, compared with $40,890 for men.
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For every dollar of hourly wages a man working full-time earns in Canada, a woman working full-time earns about 88 cents.
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Introducing historic pay equity legislation will give more Canadian women fair compensation for their hard work and will set the standard for how women’s work is valued in the workplace. The Government is proud to lead these efforts to reduce the gender wage gap.
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The Government will bring in a legislated proactive pay equity regime in federally regulated sectors, which would apply to approximately 1.2 million employed individuals. This legislation would: Ensure that both wages and other benefits are evaluated in a gender-neutral way.
The Government will commit [3 million] over five years, starting in 2018–19, to implement pay transparency.
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Repeal previous legislation such as the Public Sector Equitable Compensation Act which is inconsistent with the goal of pay equity
Women
When women come together, change happens Across the country, women’s organizations play an important role in raising social awareness and mobilizing communities to change laws, attitudes and social norms.
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The most common scenario, however, involves the mother taking on the primary caregiving responsibilities once their child is born. both in the short term following the arrival of their child, and over the longer term, often due to the challenges of re-entering the workforce after time spent away.
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To help more women entrepreneurs take their businesses to the next level, the Business Development Bank of Canada (BDC) launched a $50 million fund in 2016 to give women-led technology firms greater access to venture and growth capital—and based a highly promising pipeline, the fund was increased to $70 million in November 2017.
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Recognizing that barriers to women’s labour market participation can be complex and slow to move, the Government will also host a major symposium on women and the workplace in the spring of 2019. The Government will provide $1.5 million over 2018–19 and 2019–20 for this symposium.
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The BDC’s 2015 commitment to increase term lending to majority women-owned businesses to at least $700 million over three years has also been surpassed, and as of January 31, 2018, the BDC has lent $912 million to an additional 1,636 women-owned firms
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To support more initiatives that build the capacity of equality-seeking organizations, reduce gender inequality in Canada, and promote a fairer and more productive society, the Government proposes to provide $100 million over five years to Status of Women Canada to enhance the Women’s Program. This investment will increase organizational and sector capacity on a needs basis, allowing organizations to participate in ongoing training, skills development and community engagement, while reducing competition among equality seeking organizations for funding. This investment will also ensure better funding for organizations focused on vulnerable women, including groups such as Indigenous women, women with disabilities, members of the LGBTQ2 communities, and newcomer and migrant women.
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The Government proposes to provide Status of Women Canada with $1.3 million in 2018–19 to host a national roundtable on GBA+. The Government also proposes to provide Status of Women Canada with additional funding of up to $7.2 million over five years to lead a national conversation on gender equality with young Canadians
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This pattern of women's underparticipation in higher-paid, maledominated trades has meant that women are not only comparatively underpaid in the trades sectors, but also wrongly perceived as uninterested in or incapable of pursuing careers in the higher-paid male-dominated fields.
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The Government will provide $46 million over five years, starting in 2018–19, and $10 million per year thereafter, for the Pre-Apprenticeship Program. This program will encourage underrepresented groups—including but not limited to women, Indigenous Peoples, newcomers and persons with disabilities–to explore careers in the skilled trades.
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Investments of more than $40 billion over the next 10 years will create over 100,000 new housing units and repair 300,000 housing units for Canadians. Moreover, at least 25 per cent of National Housing Strategy investments will support projects that specifically target the unique needs of women and girls, including senior women who are more likely than senior men to need affordable housing.
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As part of the Government’s commitment to address gaps in gender and diversity data, the Government is also proposing to provide $1.5 million over five years, starting in 2018–19, and $0.2 million per year ongoing, to the Department of Finance Canada to work with Statistics Canada and Status of Women to develop a broader set of indicators and statistics to measure and track Canada’s progress on achieving shared growth and gender equality objectives.
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the Government is allocating $19.9 million over five years, starting in 2018–19, to pilot an Apprenticeship Incentive Grant for Women. Under the Grant, women in male-dominated Red Seal trades would receive $3,000 for each of their first two years of training (up to $6,000). This, in combination with the existing Apprenticeship Completion Grant valued at $2,000, will result in a combined $8,000 in support over the course of their training for a female apprentice training to become a welder, machinist pipe fitter or any other skilled trade that is male-dominated.
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To support greater gender equality in the home and in the workplace, the Government proposes to provide $1.2 billion over five years, starting in 2018–19, and $344.7 million per year thereafter, to introduce a new EI Parental Sharing Benefit. The Benefit will provide additional weeks of “use it or lose it” EI parental benefits, when both parents agree to share parental leave. This incentive is expected to be available starting June 2019
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In Canada, fewer than one in six businesses (16 per cent) are majority-owned by women, and businesses owned by women tend to be smaller than businesses owned by men, although the difference varies by industry, according to the Business Development Bank of Canada (BDC) based on 2014 data from Statistics Canada. Women entrepreneurs face unique barriers in accessing capital, supply chains and export programs compared to their male counterparts. Women entrepreneurs may also have a harder time receiving training and finding mentorship. The Government believes that with greater support, women-led businesses could enter, compete and win on the world stage, boosting economic growth and creating more good, well-paying jobs here at home.
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Budget 2018 proposes to provide $105 million over five years to the regional development agencies to support investments in women-led businesses, of those SMEs who participate in federal procurement, 10 per cent are women-owned. The Government intends to introduce measures to increase this participation rate by 50 per cent (to at least 15 per cent), in order to reflect the current proportion of SMEs majority led by women entrepreneurs in the broader population. The Business Development Bank of Canada (BDC) will coordinate a series of boot camps across Canada for promising women entrepreneurs looking to start their business
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Budget 2018 proposes that the Government will invest $10 million over five years, starting in 2018–19, to connect women with expanded export services and opportunities through the Business Women in International Trade Program
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The Government will make available $1.4 billion over three years, starting in 2018–19, in new financing for women entrepreneurs through the BDC. This commitment is in addition to an increase to $200 million (from $70 million) for investments in women-led technology firms over five years through the BDC’s Women in Technology Fund
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the Government will make available $250 million over three years, starting in 2018–19, through Export Development Canada (EDC). As well, EDC will support the international success of women entrepreneurs by providing expert advice
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To support women entrepreneurs in agriculture, the Government will create and launch a new lending product in 2018–19 designed specifically for women entrepreneurs through Farm Credit Canada.
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The Government is committed both to improving the representation of women among venture capital firm managers, and to ensuring venture capital funds are investing in Canada’s promising women-owned firms.
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The Government’s Venture Capital Catalyst Initiative, launched in December 2017 with the goal of injecting up to $1.5 billion into Canada’s venture capital market, includes a strong focus on gender balance and diversity. All proposals submitted under the Initiative are expected to demonstrate how they will improve gender representation among venture capital fund managers and portfolio companies, and will be assessed on this basis.
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Budget 2018 announces that the Government’s coming reform to federal innovation programs will include a universal goal to improve the participation of underrepresented groups, including women entrepreneurs, in the innovation economy
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To accelerate the accumulation and dissemination of knowledge, data and best practices for women entrepreneurs, the Government will make available $9.5 million over three years to support third-party proposals through a competitive process, to be administered by Innovation, Science and Economic Development.
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one third of Canadian men and one-sixth of Canadian women regularly participated in sport. Men are also approximately two to three times more likely to be coaches, officials or in other leadership positions than women. This is why through Budget 2018, the Government is setting a target to achieve gender equality in sport at every level by 2035, and proposes to provide an initial $30 million over three years to support data and research and innovative practices to promote women and girls’ participation in sport, and provide support to national sports organizations to promote the greater inclusion of women and girls in all facets of sport.
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$77.5 million over five years, and $16 million per year ongoing, to Status of Women Canada for a Gender-Based Violence Knowledge Centre, data collection and research, and programming;
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$9.5 million over five years, and $2 million per year ongoing, to the Public Health Agency of Canada to support implementing and testing ways to prevent gender-based violence, including child maltreatme
Men
Gender equality is not just about women and girls. That is why the Government of Canada will introduce a strategy focused on men and boys. The Government will provide $1.8 million over two years to Status of Women Canada to develop an engagement strategy for men and boys that promotes equality and pilots innovative, targeted approaches to addressing inequality.
D I V E R S I T Y
Diversity is Canada’s strength and a cornerstone of Canadian identity. Recent domestic and international events, like the rise of ultranationalist movements, and protests against immigration,
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ex. Story: Fawzia immigrated to Canada in 2009 from Somalia, where she was a practicing gynecologist/obstetrician. After spending a year attempting to get recertified to practice medicine in Canada, she decided to volunteer at a local hospital, where she spends her time helping escort patients between departments. She loves being back in a hospital setting but misses being able to care for her own patients one-on-one, and worries about losing the practical skills that are an important part of her profession.
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The Government of Canada intends to address gaps in gathering data and to better use data related to gender and diversity. This includes proposing $6.7 million over five years, starting in 2018–19, and $0.6 million per year ongoing, for Statistics Canada to create a new Centre for Gender, Diversity and Inclusion Statistics.
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Budget 2018 also proposes to provide $5 million per year to Status of Women Canada to undertake research and data collection in support of the Government’s Gender Results Framework. One of the first projects this would support is an analysis of the unique challenges visible minority and newcomer women face in finding employment in science, technology engineering and mathematics occupations
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The Government will launch a three-year pilot to support programming for newcomer women who are also members of visible minorities and provide $31.8 million over three years starting in 2018–19.
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Budget 2018 proposes a new investment of $210 million over five years, starting in 2018–19, with $50 million per year ongoing, for the Canada Research Chairs Program. The purpose of this investment will be to better support early-career researchers, while increasing diversity among nominated researchers, including increasing the number of women who are nominated for Canada Research Chairs
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As the National Research Council re-imagines itself to deliver on the Innovation and Skills Plan, it will be taking targeted action to include more women, youth, Indigenous Peoples, persons with disabilities and visible minorities among its researchers. Targeted actions include ensuring there are no unintended barriers to the participation of women researchers and entrepreneurs in the National Research Council’s programs, as well as increased outreach to diverse groups of Canadians so they are fully aware of its programs and the opportunity to participate. The government proposes to provide $540 million over five years, starting in 2018–19, and $108 million annually for measures that will reinforce its research strengths and role as a trusted collaboration partner of industry.
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legislation recently introduced in Parliament by the Minister of Innovation, Science and Economic Development proposes amendments to the Canada Business Corporations Act that would require federally incorporated corporations to make annual disclosures to shareholders regarding the diversity of their senior management teams and boards of directors.
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the Government will further support corporate inclusion by publicly recognizing corporations that are committed to promoting women, including minority women, to senior management positions and boards of directors. In partnership with the private sector, the Government will create an annual award for Canadian corporations showing leadership in this area.
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Canada's Start-up Visa Program provides permanent resident immigration status to innovative global entrepreneurs with the potential to grow their companies in Canada. Budget 2018 proposes to provide $4.6 million over five years, beginning in 2018–19, and $0.8 million per year ongoing, to enhance the Start-up Visa client-service experience by ensuring applicants, private sector partners and immigration officials are able to process applications electronically and more efficiently
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As a first step toward recognizing the significant and unique challenges faced by Black Canadians, the Government also proposes to provide $19 million over five years that will be targeted to enhance local community supports for youth at risk and to develop research in support of more culturally focused mental health programs in the Black Canadian community.
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the Government is committed to increase the disaggregation of various data sets by race. This will help governments and service providers better understand the intersectional dimensions of major issues, with a particular focus on the experience of Black Canadians
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In order to obtain more inclusive data on sex and gender, Statistics Canada officials have been working with LGBTQ2 organizations to adjust Census of Population questions and response options to better reflect how people identify themselves, for example, by allowing respondents to answer in a non-binary fashion. This will provide critical information to help understand and meet the needs of LGBTQ2 Canadians.
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$1.5 million over five years to Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada to enhance the Settlement Program.
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$2.4 million over five years, and $0.6 million per year ongoing, to the Royal Canadian Mounted Police for cultural competency training for federal law enforcement officers;
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the Government proposes to provide $173.2 million to support security operations at the Canada-U.S. border and the processing of asylum claimants arriving in 2018–19. Funding would be used to manage the increased number of people seeking asylum in Canada this year, many of whom arrive with their families seeking quick, safe and compassionate processing.
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The Government proposes to provide $194.1 million over five years, beginning in 2018–19, and $33.19 million per year ongoing, to ensure the rights of temporary foreign workers in Canada are protected and enforced through a robust compliance regime.
Reconciliation
The Government proposes to invest an additional $5 billion over five years to ensure that Indigenous children and families have an equal chance to succeed in life, to build the capacity of Indigenous governments, and to accelerate self-determination and selfgovernment agreements with Indigenous Peoples based on the recognition and implementation of rights.
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the Government of Canada will be moving away from the use of loans to fund Indigenous participation in the negotiation of modern treaties. Starting in 2018–19, Indigenous participation in modern treaty negotiations will be funded through non-repayable contributions.
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The Government will engage with affected Indigenous groups on how best to address past and present negotiation loans, including forgiveness of loans.
International Feminism
The Government released its Feminist International Assistance Policy, focusing on six interlinked areas: gender equality and the empowerment of women and girls, human dignity, peace and security, inclusive governance, environment and climate action, and growth that works for everyone.
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The Government proposes to provide an additional $2 billion over five years, starting in 2018–19, to the International Assistance Envelope.
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In support of the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, the Feminist International Assistance Policy puts women and girls at the centre of its plan as agents of positive change for their families, communities and countries. Gender equality will be a focus of all of Canada’s international assistance investments to address economic, political and social inequalities that prevent individuals from reaching their full potential
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$180 million over three years for the Global Partnership for Education to support girls’ education and help strengthen education systems in developing countries.
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$15 million over four years to Marie Stopes Tanzania to provide girls and women with improved access to family planning information and services.
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$6 million to designated United Nations missions to improve their ability to support and benefit women’s increased participation in peace operations.
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$15 million to launch a global fund to support the deployment of women peacekeepers.
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Strengthen its focus on sexual and reproductive health and rights by doubling its commitment to $650 million over the next three years.
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the Government proposes to provide $1.5 billion over five years, starting in 2018– 19, on a cash basis ($553 million on an accrual basis), and $492.7 million per year thereafter, from existing unallocated International Assistance Envelope resources
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95 per cent of Canada’s bilateral international development assistance will either target or integrate gender equality and the empowerment of women and girls by 2021–22.
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Half of the world’s 22.5 million refugee population is made up of women and girls, making this population a significant segment of those fleeing war,
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the Government commits to increase the number of vulnerable refugee women and girls to be resettled in Canada as government-assisted refugees. Specifically, Budget 2018 proposes funding of $20.3 million over five years, beginning in 2018–19, to welcome an extra 1,000 refugee women and girls from various conflict zones around the world.
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Non Citizen Gibs
[24 Billion Per Year] The CCB has been supporting more than 3.3 million families with children, putting almost $2 billion each month, tax-free, into the bank accounts of families who need it most.
Who is eligible for Canada Child Benefit?
You or your spouse or common-law partner must be:
submitted by AnonUrban2 to metacanada [link] [comments]

Perpetual Option: Och-Ziff Capital Management Group (OZM)

In his book, You Can Be a Stock Market Genius, Greenblatt talks about using LEAPs to make leveraged bets. The book included his trade in Wells Fargo (WFC, another topic for a future post, I suppose).
But sometimes, stocks get down so cheap that they become priced like options. In the Genius book, the WFC LEAPs were priced at $14 while the stock was at around $77.
Here, we have a hedge fund manager trading less than $3.00/share, which is a typical price for regular options, not even LEAPs. Of course, all stocks are options on the residual value of businesses. But sometimes things are priced for either a large gain or zero, just like an option.
I call this a perpetual option, but that reminds me of those lifetime warranties. Like, who's lifetime? The manufacturer's? The store's? Yours? Nothing is forever, so I guess there really is no such thing as a perpetual option. But anyway...
Och-Ziff IPO'ed in 2007 at $32/share and traded in the mid $20's right before the crisis, then down to below $5.00 during the crisis and back up to the mid-teens. I've been watching this since the IPO and looked at it again when it was trading around $10/share. It's down quite a bit since then. I didn't own it back then but I did take a small bite down at $5.00/share.
I have mentioned other private equity and hedge fund managers here in the past but haven't owned most of them because of the amount of money that seemed to be going into alternatives. I was just worried that the AUM's of all of these alternative managers were going up so quickly that I couldn't imagine them earning the high returns that made everyone rush to them in the first place. Look at the presentation of any of these alternative managers and their AUM growth is just staggering.
Extremely Contrarian We investors walk around and think about all sorts of things; look at store traffic, taste new foods/restaurant concepts, count how many Apple watches people are wearing (I recently biked around the city with my kid (Brooklyn to Central Park, around the park (around the big loop) and all the way downtown back to Brooklyn (30+ miles) and I think I counted two Apple watches that I saw compared to countless iPhones. And this was in the summer so no coats or long sleeves to hide wrists).
And a couple of the things that we tend to think about are, What does everybody absolutely love, and what are they 100% sure of (other than that Hillary will win the election and that the market will crash if Trump wins), and What do people absolutely, 100% hate and don't even want to talk about? In the investing world right now, it seems like the one thing that everybody seems to agree with is that active investing is dead (OK, not completely true because we active investors never really lose faith in it). The data points to it (active managers underperforming for many years, legendary stock pickers too not performing all too well, star hedge funds not doing well etc...). The money flows point to it (cash flowing out of active managers and into passive funds, boom in index funds / ETFs; this reminds me of the 1990's when there were more mutual funds than listed companies. There are probably more ETFs now than listed companies). Sentiment points to it (stars and heroes now are ETF managers, quants etc.).
By the Way Oh, and by the way, in case people say that it is no longer possible due to this or that reason for humans to outperform indices or robots, I would just say that we have seen this before. Things in finance are cyclical and we've seen this movie before.
From the 1985 Berkshire Hathaway Letter, Most institutional investors in the early 1970s, on the other hand, regarded business value as of only minor relevance when they were deciding the prices at which they would buy or sell. This now seems hard to believe. However, these institutions were then under the spell of academics at prestigious business schools who were preaching newly-fashioned theory: the stock market was totally efficient, and therefore calculations of business value -- and even thought, itself -- were of no importance in investment activities. (We are enormously indebted to those academics: what could be more advantageous in an intellectual contest -- whether it be bridge, chess or stock selection than to have opponents who have been taught that thinking is a waste of energy?)
What Do People Hate? So, back to what people absolutely hate. People hate active managers. It's not even stocks that they are not interested in. They hate active managers. Nobody outperforms and their fees are not worth it. What else do they hate? They hate hedge funds. I don't need to write a list here, but you just keep reading one institution after another reducing their exposure to hedge funds. There is a massive shakeout going on now with money leaving hedge funds. Others like Blackstone argues that this is not true; assets are just moving out of mediocre hedge funds and moving into theirs.
This is a theme I will be going back to in later posts, but for now I am just going to look at OZM.
OZM OZM is a well-known hedge fund firm so I won't go into much detail here. To me, it's sort of a conventional equity-oriented hedge fund that runs strategies very typical of pre-Volcker rule Wall Street investment banks; equity long/short, merger arb, convertible arb etc. They have been expanding into credit and real estate with decent results. But a lot of their AUM is still in the conventional equity strategies.
What makes OZM interesting now is that chart from the Pzena Investment report (see here). These charts make it obvious why active managers have had such a hard time. The value spread has just continued to widen since 2004/2005 through now. Cheap stocks get cheaper and expensive stocks get more so. You can see how this sort of environment could be the worst for long/short strategies (and value-oriented long strategies, and even naked short strategies for that matter). Things have just been going the wrong way with no mean reversion.
But if you look at where those charts are now, you can see that it is probably exactly the wrong time to give up on value strategies or value-based long/short strategies; in fact it looks like the best time ever to be looking at these strategies.
Seeing that, does it surprise me that many pension funds are running the other way? Not at all. Many large institutions chase performance and not future potential.
Conceptually speaking, they would rather buy a stock at 80x P/E that has gone up 30%/year in the past five years that is about to tank rather than buy an 8x P/E stock that has gone nowhere in the past five years but is about to take off; they are driven by historic (or recent historic) performance.
OZM Performance Anyway, let's look at the long term performance of OZM. This excludes their credit and real estate funds which are doing much better and are growing AUM.
This is their performance since 1994 through the end of 2015:
OZM fund S&P500 1994 28.50% 5.30% 1995 23.50% 27.40% 1996 27.40% 23.00% 1997 26.70% 33.40% 1998 11.10% 28.60% 1999 18.80% 21.00% 2000 20.60% -9.10% 2001 6.30% -11.90% 2002 -1.60% -22.10% 2003 24.00% 28.70% 2004 11.10% 10.90% 2005 8.80% 4.90% 2006 14.80% 15.80% 2007 11.50% 5.50% 2008 -15.90% -37.00% 2009 23.10% 26.50% 2010 8.50% 15.10% 2011 -0.50% 2.10% 2012 11.60% 16.00% 2013 13.90% 32.40% 2014 5.50% 13.70% 2015 -0.40% 1.40% 5 year avg 5.85% 12.57% 10 year avg 6.69% 7.32% Since 1994 12.05% 8.87% Since 2000 7.59% 5.01% Since 2007 5.14% 6.53%
So they have not been doing too well, but it's really only the last couple of years that don't look too good. Their ten-year return through 2013 was +8.2%/year versus +7.4%/year for the S&P 500 index. It's pretty obvious that their alpha has been declining over time.
For those who want more up-to-date figures, I redid the above table to include figures through September-end 2016. And instead of 5 year and 10 year returns, I use 4.75-year and 9.75-year returns; I thought that would be more comparable than saying 5.75-year and 10.75-year, and I didn't want to dig into quarterly figures to get actual 5 and 10s.
OZM fund S&P500 1994 28.50% 5.30% 1995 23.50% 27.40% 1996 27.40% 23.00% 1997 26.70% 33.40% 1998 11.10% 28.60% 1999 18.80% 21.00% 2000 20.60% -9.10% 2001 6.30% -11.90% 2002 -1.60% -22.10% 2003 24.00% 28.70% 2004 11.10% 10.90% 2005 8.80% 4.90% 2006 14.80% 15.80% 2007 11.50% 5.50% 2008 -15.90% -37.00% 2009 23.10% 26.50% 2010 8.50% 15.10% 2011 -0.50% 2.10% 2012 11.60% 16.00% 2013 13.90% 32.40% 2014 5.50% 13.70% 2015 -0.40% 1.40% 2016* 1.10% 7.80% 4.75 year 6.53% 14.58% 9.75 year 5.48% 6.72% Since 1994 11.68% 8.92% Since 2000 7.29% 5.27% Since 2007 4.82% 6.86%
So over time, they have good outperformance, but much of that is from the early years. As they get bigger, it's not hard to see why their spread would shrink.
They are seriously underperforming in the 4.75 year, but that's because the S&P 500 index was coming off of a big bear market low and OZM didn't lose that much money, so I think that is irrelevant, especially for a long/short fund.
More relevant would be figures from recent market peaks which sort of shows a through-the-cycle performance. Since the market peak in 2000, OZM has outperformed with a gain of +7.3%/year versus +5.3%/year for the S&P, but they have underperformed since the 2007 peak. A lot of this probably has to do with the previous charts about how value spreads have widened throughout this period.
I would actually want to be increasing exposure to this area that hasn't worked well since 2007. Some of this, of course, is due to lower interest rates. Merger arb, for example, is highly dependent on interest rates as are other arbitrage type trades. (The less risk there is, the closer to the short term interest rate the return is going to be.)
One thing that makes me scratch my head, though, in the 3Q 2016 10-Q is the following: OZ Master Fund’s merger arbitrage, convertible and derivative arbitrage, corporate credit and structured credit strategies have each generated strong year-to-date gains through September 30, 2016. In merger arbitrage, certain transactions in which OZ Master Fund participated closed during the third quarter, contributing to the strategy’s year-to-date gross return of +1.3%. Convertible and derivative arbitrage generated a gross return of +0.5% during the third quarter, driven by gains in convertible arbitrage positions, commodity-related volatility, commodity spreads and index volatility spread trades. Year-to-date, convertible and derivative arbitrage has generated a gross return of +1.3%. In OZ Master Fund’s credit-related strategies, widening credit spreads and certain event-driven situations added +0.4% to the gross return within corporate credit during the third quarter, while in structured credit, a +0.9% gross return during the quarter was attributable to the realization of recoveries in certain of our idiosyncratic situations. Year-to-date, the corporate credit and structured credit strategies are each up +1.2% on a gross basis. Gross returns of less than 2% are described as "strong". Hmm... I may be missing something here. Maybe it is 'strong' versus comparable strategies. I don't know. Anyway, moving on...
Greenblatt Genius Strategies Oh yeah, and by the way, OZM is one of the funds that are heavily into the yellow book strategies. Here's a description of their equity long/short strategy: Long/short equity special situations, which consists of fundamental long/short and event-driven investing. Fundamental long/short investing involves analyzing companies and assets to profit where we believe mispricing or undervaluation exists. Event-driven investing attempts to realize gain from corporate events such as spin-offs, recapitalizations and other corporate restructurings, whether company specific or due to industry or economic conditions.
This is still a large part of their book, which is a good thing if you believe that the valuation spreads will mean revert and that Greenblatt's yellow book strategies are still valid.
One thing that may temper returns over time, though, is the AUM level. What you can do with $1 billion in AUM is not the same as when you have $10 billion or $30 billion. I don't think Greenblatt would have had such high returns if he let AUM grow too much.
This seems to be an issue with a lot of hedge funds. Many of the old stars who were able to make insane returns with AUM under $1 billion seem to have much lower returns above that level.
Here is OZM's AUM trend in the past ten years. Some of the lower return may correlate to the higher AUM, not to mention higher AUM at other hedge funds too reducing spreads (and potential profits).
Just to refresh my memory, I grabbed the AUM chart from the OZM prospectus in 2007. Their AUM was under $6 billion until the end of 2003 and then really grew to over $30 billion by 2007.
Their 10-year return through 2003 was 18%/year vs. 10.6%/year for the S&P 500 index.
From the end of 2003 through the end of 2015, OZM's funds returned +7.2%/year versus +7.4%/year for the S&P 500 index. So their alpha basically went from 7.4%/year outperformance to flat.
This is actually not so bad as these types of funds often offered 'equity-like' returns with lower volatility and drawdowns. The long/short nature of OZM funds means that investors achieved the same returns as the S&P 500 index without the full downside exposure. This is exactly what many institutions want, actually.
But still, did their growth in AUM dampen returns? I think there is no doubt about that. These charts showing tremendous AUM growth is the reason why I never owned much of these alternative managers in the past few years I've been watching them.
The question is how much of the lower returns are due to the higher AUM. Of course, some of this AUM growth is in other strategies so not all new AUM is squeezed into the same strategies.
Will OZM ever go back to the returns of the 1990's? I doubt that. First of all, that was a tremendous bull market. Plus, OZM's AUM was much smaller so they had more opportunities to take advantage of yellow book ideas and other strategies.
Boom/Bubble Doesn't Mean It's a Bad Idea By the way, another sort of tangent. Just because there is a big boom or bubble in something doesn't necessarily make that 'something' a bad idea. We had a stock market bubble in the late 1920's that ended badly, but owning parts of businesses never suddenly became a bad idea or anything. It's just that you didn't want to overpay, or buy stocks for the wrong reasons.
We had a boom in the late 1990's in stocks that focused on picking stocks and owning them for the long term as exemplified by the Beardstown Ladies. Of course, the Beardstown Ladies didn't end well (basically a fraud), but owning good stocks for the long haul, I don't think, ever became a bad idea necessarily.
We had a tremendous housing bubble and various real estate bubbles in recent years. But again, owning good, solid assets at reasonable prices for the long haul never became a bad idea despite the occasional bubbles and collapses.
Similarly, hedge funds and alternative assets go through cycles too. I know many value investors are not with me here and will always hate hedge funds (like Buffett), but that's OK.
We've had alternative cycles in the past. Usually the pattern is that there is a bull market in stocks and people rush into stocks. The bull market inevitably ends and people lose money. Institutions not wanting to lose money rush into 'alternative' assets. Eventually, the market turns and they rush back into equities.
I think something similar is happening now, but the cycle seems a bit elongated and, and the low interest rates is having an effect as alternatives are now attracting capital formerly allocated to fixed income. In the past, alternatives seemed more like an equity substitution, risk asset.
Valuation OK, so what is OZM worth?
Well, a simple way of looking at it is that OZM has paid an average of $1.10/year in dividends in the last five years. During the past five years, the funds returned around 6%/year, so it's not an upside outlier in terms of fund performance.
Put a 10x multiple on it and the stock is worth $11/share.
Another way to look at it is that the market is telling you that it is unlikely that OZM will enjoy the success even of the past five years over the next few years. Assuming a scenario of failure (stock price = 0) or back to sort of past five years performance ($11), a $3.00 stock price reflects the odds of failure at 73% and only a 27% chance that OZM gets back to it's past five year average-like performance. Of course, OZM can just sort of keep doing what it's doing and stay at $3.00 for a long time too.
There is a problem with this, though, as the dividends don't reflect equity-based compensation expense; OZM gives out a bunch of RSU's every year.
To adjust for this, let's look at the economic earnings of the past five years including the costs of equity-based compensation.
Equity-based compensation expense not included in economic income is listed below ($000):
2008 102,025 2009 122,461 2010 128,737 2011 128,916 2012 86,006 2013 120,125 2014 104,344 2015 106,565
It's odd that this doesn't seem to correlate to revenues, income or AUM; it's just basically flat all the way through.
If we include this, economic income at OZM averaged around $520 million/year. With fully diluted 520 million shares outstanding, that's around $1.00/share in economic earnings per share that OZM earned on average over the past five years. So that's not too far off from the $1.10/share dividends we used above.
One of the interesting things about investing is when you find alternative ways to value something instead of just the usual price-to-book values, P/E ratios etc.
So how would you value this?
What about adjusting the implied odds from the above. What if we said there's a 50/50 chance of recovery or failure. Let's say recovery is getting back to what it has done over the past five years on average, and failure is a zero on the stock.
50% x $0.00 + 50% x $10.00 = $5.00/share
In that case, OZM is worth $5.00/share, or 70% higher than the current price. You are looking at a 60 cent dollar in that case.
Let's say there is a 70% chance of recovery.
70% x $10.00 + 30% x $0.00 = $7.00/share.
That's 130% higher, or a 40 cent dollar.
By the way, the AUM averaged around $37 billion over the past five years, and remember, their return was around 5.9%/year so these figures aren't based on huge, abnormal returns or anything.
As of the end of September 2016, AUM was $39.3 billion, and this went down to $37 billion as of November 1, 2016. OZM expects continued redemptions towards year-end both due to their Justice Department/SEC settlement and overall industry redemption trends.
The above ignored balance sheet items, but you can deduct $0.60/share, maybe, of negative equity, or more if you think they need more cash on the balance sheet to run their business.
Preferred Shares As for the $400 million settlement amount and preferred shares, the settlement amount is already on the balance sheet as a liability (which was paid out after the September quarter-end). The preferred shares were sold after the quarter ended. They have zero interest for three years so I don't think it impacts the above analysis. You would just add cash on the balance sheet and the preferreds on the liability side.
If you want to deduct the full amount of the settlement of $400 million, you can knock off $0.77/share off the above valuation instead of the $0.60/share.
Earnings Model The problem with these companies is that it's impossible, really, to predict what their AUM is going to be in the future or their performance. Of course, we can guess that if they do well, AUM will increase and vice-versa.
But still, as a sanity check, we should see how things look with various assumptions in terms of valuation.
First of all, let's look at 2015. In the full year to 2015, a year that the OZM funds were down (master fund), they paid a dividend of $0.87. Adjusted economic income was $240 million (economic income reported by OZM less equity-based comp expense) and using the current fully diluted shares outstanding of 520 million, that comes to $0.46/share. OK, it's funny to use current shares outstanding against last year's economic income, but I am trying to use last years' earnings as sort of a 'normalized' figure.
Using these figures from a bad year, OZM is current trading at a 29% dividend yield (using $3.00/share price) and 6.5x adjusted economic income. This would be 8.3x if you added the $0.77/share from the settlement above.
OK, so average AUM was $44 billion in 2015, so even in a bad year, they made tons in management fees. Fine. We'll get to that in a second. AUM is $37 billion as of November 2016, and is probably headed down towards year-end.
2016 Year-to-Date So let's look at how they are doing this year so far. Fund performance-wise, it hasn't been too good, but they do remain profitable. These fund businesses are designed so that their fixed expenses are covered by their management fees. Big bonuses are paid out only when the funds make money.
Anyway, let's look at 2016 so far in terms of economic income.
In the 3Q of 2016, economic income was $57.4 million. Equity-based compensation expense was $18.3 million so adjusted economic income was $39.1 million. Annualize that and you get $156 million. Using 520 million fully diluted shares (share amount used to calculate distributable earnings in the earnings press release), that comes to $0.30/share adjusted economic income. So at $3.00/share, OZM is trading at 10x arguably depressed earnings. (This excludes the FCPA settlement amount). If you include $400 million of the FCPA preferreds (total to be offered eventually), then the P/E would actually be closer to 12.6x.
For the year to date, economic income was $195 million, and equity-based comp expense was $56 million so adjusted economic income was $139 million. Again using 520 million shares, that comes to $0.25/share in adjusted economic earnings per share. Annualize that and you get $0.33/share. So at $3.00/share, OZM is trading at 9x depressed earnings, or 11x including the FCPA preferred.
OK, so maybe this is not really 'depressed'. With still a lot of AUM, it is possible that AUM keeps going down.
AUM was $37 billion in November, but let's say it goes down to $30 billion. That's actually a big dip. But let's say AUM goes down there. And then let's assume 1% management fees, 20% incentive fees, and economic income margin of 50% (averaged 56% in past five years) and the OZM master fund return of 5%.
In this case, economic income would be $300 million. Equity-based comp costs seems steady at around $100 million, so we deduct that to get adjusted economic income. This comes to $200 million.
That comes to around $0.40/share. At $3.00/share, that's 7.5x adjusted economic earnings, or a 13% yield, or 9.4x and 10.6% yield including the FCPA preferreds.
So that's not bad. We are assuming AUM dips to $30 billion and OZM funds only earn 5%/year, and with that assumption the stock is trading at this cheap level.
Things, of course, can get much worse. If performance doesn't improve, AUM will keep going down. You can't really stress test these things as you can just say their returns will never recover and that's that.
On the other hand, any improvement can get you considerable upside.
If assets return to $40 billion and returns average 6% over time, economic income margin goes to 56% (average of past five years), adjust economic income per share is $0.76/share and the stock could be worth $7.60/share for more than a double.
Here's a matrix of possibilities. Skeptics will say, where are the returns below 5% and AUM below $30 billion?!
Well, OK. If returns persist at lower than 5%, it's safe to assume that AUM will go down and this may well end up a zero. That is certainly a possibility. It wouldn't shock many for another hedge fund to shut down.
On the other hand, if things do stabilize, normalize and OZM recovers and does well, there is a lot of upside here. What is interesting to me is that the market is discounting a lot of bad and not pricing in much good. This is when opportunities occur, right?
5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 30,000 $0.45 $0.52 $0.58 $0.65 $0.71 $0.78 35,000 $0.56 $0.64 $0.71 $0.79 $0.86 $0.94 40,000 $0.67 $0.76 $0.84 $0.93 $1.01 $1.10 45,000 $0.78 $0.87 $0.97 $1.07 $1.16 $1.26 50,000 $0.88 $0.99 $1.10 $1.21 $1.32 $1.42 55,000 $0.99 $1.11 $1.23 $1.35 $1.47 $1.58 60,000 $1.10 $1.23 $1.36 $1.49 $1.62 $1.75
The row above is the assumed return of the OZM funds. The left column is the AUM. Assumptions are 1% management fee, 20% incentive fee, 56% economic income margin (excluding equity-based comp expense) and $100 million/year in equity-based comp expense.
It shows you that it doesn't take much for adjusted economic income per share to get back up to closer to $1.00, and can maintain $0.45/share even in a $30 billion AUM and 5% return scenario making the current stock price cheap even under that scenario.
Conclusion Having said all that, there is still a lot of risk here. Low returns and low bonuses can easily make it hard for OZM to keep their best people. But if their best people perform, I assume they do get paid directly for their performance so that shouldn't be too much of an issue.
A lot of the lower returns in recent years is no doubt due to their higher AUM. But it is also probably due to crowding of the hedge fund world and low interest rates leading to an overall lower return environment for all.
If you think these things are highly cyclical, then you can expect interest rates to normalize at some point. Money flowing out of hedge funds should also be good for future returns in these strategies. The part of lower returns at OZM due to higher AUM may not reverse itself, though, if OZM succeeds in maintaining and increasing AUM over time.
But even without the blowout, high returns of the 1990's, OZM can make decent returns over time as seen in the above table.
In any case, unlike a few years ago, the stock prices of many alternative managers are cheap (and I demonstrated how cheap OZM might be here) and institutional money seems to be flowing out of these strategies.
So: OZM is cheap and is in a seemingly universally hated industry Money is flowing out of these strategies, particularly performance chasing institutions (that you would often want to fade) there is a bear market in active managers and bubble in indexing (which may actually increase opportunities for active managers) value spreads are wide and has been widening for years making mean reversion overdue etc. These things make OZM a compelling play on these various themes.
I would treat this more like an option, though. Buy it like you would buy an option, not like you would invest in, say, a Berkshire Hathaway.
There are a lot of paths here to make good money, but there are also plenty of ways to lose. If you look at this like a binary option, it can be pretty interesting!
Posted by kk at 8:11 PM No comments: Links to this post Email This BlogThis! Share to Twitter Share to Facebook Share to Pinterest
Labels: OZM
Saturday, October 29, 2016 Gotham's New Fund Joel Greenblatt was in Barron's recently. He is one of my favorite investors so maybe it's a good time for another post.
Anyway, this new fund is kind of interesting as I am sort of a tinkerer; this is like the product of some financial tinkering. I don't know if it's the right product for many, but we'll take a look.
But first, let's see what he has to say about the stock market in general.
The Market Greenblatt says that the market is "expensive". The market is in the 21st percentile of expensive in the past 25 years. Either a typo or he misspoke, he is quoted as saying that the market has been more expensive 79% of the time in the past 25 years. Of course, he means the market has been cheaper 79% of the time.
The year forward expected return from this price level is between 2% to 7%, so he figures it averages out to 4% to 6% per year. In the past 25 years, the market has returned 9% to 10%/year so he figures the market is 12% to 13% more expensive than it used to be.
He says: Well, one scenario could be that it drops 12% to 13% tomorrow and future returns would go back to 9% to 10%. Or you could underearn for three years at 4% to 6%. We're still expecting positive returns, just more muted. The intelligent strategy is to buy the cheapest things you can find and short the most expensive.
But... Immediately, bears will say that this 25 year history is based during a period when interest rates went down. The 10 year bond rate was around 8% back in 1991, and is now 1.8%. In terms of valuation, this would have pushed up asset values by 6.2%/year ($1.00 discounted at 8%/year then and $1.00 discounted by 1.8% now).
Declining rates were certainly a factor in stock returns over the past 25 years. Of course, the stock market didn't keep going up as rates kept going down. The P/E ratio of the S&P 500 index at the end of 1990 was around 15x, and now it's 25x according to Shiller's database (raw P/E, not CAPE). So the valuation gain over the 25 years accounted for around 2%/year of the 9-10% return Greenblatt states.
Here are the EPS estimates for the S&P 500 index according to Goldman Sachs:
 EPS P/E 
2016 $105 20.4x 2017 $116 18.5x 2018 $122 17.6x
Earnings estimates are not all that reliable (estimates have been coming down consistently in the past year or so). But since most of 2016 is done, I suppose the $105 figure should be OK to use.
I don't know if it's apples to apples (reported versus operating etc.), but if we assume the 'current' P/E of the market is 20x, then the valuation tailwind accounted for 1.2%/year of the 9-10%. But then of course, even if this was a fair comparison, there is still the aspect of lower interest rates boosting the economy by borrowing future demand (and therefore overstating historical earnings).
In any case, one of the main bearish arguments is that this interest rate tailwind in the past will become a headwind going forward. Just about everyone agrees with that.
But as I have mentioned before, calling turns in interest rates is very hard, Japan being a great example. If you look at interest rates over the past 100 years or more, you see that major turns in trend don't happen all that often; it's been a single trend of declining rates since the 1980/81 peak, basically. What are the chances that you are going to call the next big turn correctly? I would bet against anyone trying. OK, that didn't come out right. I wouldn't necessarily be long the bond market either.
Gotham Index Plus So, back to the topic of Gotham's new fund. It is a fascinating idea. The fund will go long the S&P 500 index, 100% long, and then overlay a 90%/90% long/short portfolio of the S&P 500 stocks based on their valuations.
The built-in leverage alone makes this sort of interesting. Many institutions may have an allocation to the S&P 500 index, and then some allocation to long/short equity hedge funds. The return of the Gotham Index plus would be much higher (when things go well).
I think this sort of thing was popular at some point in the pension world; index plus alpha etc. Except I think a lot of those were institutions replacing their S&P 500 index portfolios with futures positions, and then using the cash raised to buy mortgage securities. Of course, when things turned bad, oops; they took big hits in S&P 500 futures, tried to post cash for the margin call and realized that their mortgage funds weren't liquid (and was worth a lot less than they thought).
Or something like that.
There is risk here too, of course. You are overlaying two risk positions on top of each other. When things turn bad, things can certainly get ugly.
I think Greenblatt's calculation is that when things turn bad, the long/short usually does well. I haven't seen any backtests or anything, so I don't know what the odds of a blowup are.
Expensive stocks tend to be high-beta stocks and cheaper stocks may be lower beta, so in a market correction, the high-beta, expensive names may go down a lot harder.
To some extent, lower valuations may reflect more cyclicality, lower credit risk / lower balance sheet quality too so you have to be a little careful. In a financial crisis-like situation, lower valuation (lower credit quality) can tank and some higher valuation names may hold up (like the FANG-like stocks).
But Greenblatt's screen is not just raw P/E or P/B, but is tied to return on capital, so maybe this is not as much of an issue compared to a pure P/B model.
The argument for this structure is that people can't stay with a strategy if it can't keep up with the market. Here, the market return is built in from the beginning and you just hope for the "Plus" part to kick in. In a long/short portfolio, the beta is netted out to a large extent so can lower potential returns. This fixes that. But there is a cost to that.
In any case, I do think it's a really interesting product, but keep in mind that it is a little riskier than Gotham's other offerings.
Oh, and go read the article on why this new fund is a good idea. Greenblatt is always a great read.
Chipotle (CMG) Well, Chipotle earnings came out and it was predictably horrible. The stock is not cheap so it hasn't been recommendable in a while, but I really like the company. There was a really long article on them recently which was a great read. It didn't really change my view of them all that much. I think they will get a lot of business back, eventually.
The earnings call was OK, but what was depressing about it was that they decided to ditch Shophouse. I don't think any analysts asked about it so it was a given, I guess. I had it a couple of times in DC and liked it and was looking forward to it in NY, but I guess that's not going to happen. As an investor, that was not baked into the cake, I don't think, even though there was probably some hope that the CMG brand can be extended into other categories.
This puts a lot of doubt into that idea. Someone said that brand extensions in restaurants/retail never work, and that has proven to be the case here. I wouldn't get too excited about pizza and burgers either. Burgers are really crowded now and will only get more so.
If CMG has to look to Europe for growth, that is not so great either as the record of U.S. companies expanding into Europe is not good. I would not count on Europe growth.
Anyway, this doesn't mean it's all over for CMG. I think they will come back, but there are some serious headwinds now other than their food poisoning problem; more competition etc. They were the only game in town for a while, but now everyone seemingly wants to become the next Chipotle, so there are a lot of options out there now.
As for Ackman's interest in CMG, I have no idea what his plan is. There is no real estate here as CMG rents all their restaurants, and their restaurants had high 20's operating margins at their peak. I don't know if they will ever get back up there, but it's not like these guys don't know how to run an efficient operation. Maybe Ackman sees SGA opportunities, but pre-crisis, SGA was less than 7%, so there wouldn't be that much of a boost from cutting SGA. Or maybe he thinks it's time for CMG to do what everyone else is doing and go for the franchise model. Who knows? I look forward to seeing what his thoughts are; hopefully some 500 page presentation pops up somewhere...
McDonalds I don't want to turn this into a food blog, but I can't resist mentioning this. I have been a lifelong MCD customer; I have no problem with it. OK, it may not be my first choice of a meal in most cases, but it's fine. And when you have a kid, you tend to go more often that you'd like. But still, it's OK. It is what it is, right?
I like the remodelling that they are doing, and the fact that they have free wifi is great too. But here's a big clustermuck they had with their recent custom burger and kiosk idea. I walked into a MCD without knowing anything about any of this recently. A lady said I can order at the kiosk and I said, no, I'll just go to the counter, thank you.
And I waited 10 minutes or so in line, looking up at the tasty looking special hamburgers on the HD, LCD menu board. It was finally my turn at the cash register and I said I want that tasty looking hamburger up there on the screen. And the lady said, oh, you can only order that at the kiosk. I was like, huh? That was really annoying. So I wait all this time and I can't get what I want; I have to walk all the way back and get in another line again? Come on! At that point, I didn't want any other burger so I just ordered a salad (and the usual for my kid).
OK, so it's my fault, probably. User error. But as a service company, as far as I'm concerned, that was a massive fail on the part of MCD.
OK, Now That I started... And by the way, since I got myself started, let me get these two out too. Yes, I spend too much time at fast food joints. Guilty. But still, here are my two peeves related to two of my favorite fast casual places:
Shake Shack: Being dragged there all the time, I have learned to love the Shack-cago hot dog. Chicken Shack is awesome too, in case you don't want to eat hamburgers all the time. But I can't tell you how often they get take-out and stay wrong. I had a long run where they didn't get it right at all and had to ask for things to be packed to go. It is really annoying and wastes everyone's time.
Chipotle: This hasn't happened to me the last couple of times, but this is the usual conversation that happens to me just about every time I go to Chipotle.
CMG: "Hi, what can we get you today?" (or some such) Me: "Um, I'll have a burrito..." CMG: putting the tortilla in the tortilla warmecooker, "and would you like white rice or brown rice? Me: "White rice is fine" CMG: with tortilla still in the cooker, "and black beans or pinto beans?" Me: "black beans". CMG: laying a sheet of aluminum foil on the counter and placing the tortilla on it, moving over to the rice area, "Was that white rice or brown rice?" Me: "white rice" CMG: sliding over to the beans, "and black beans or pinto beans?". Me: "black".
I can't tell you how many times this exact thing happened to me. If you can't remember what I say, don't ask beforehand! Just ask when we get to whatever you are going to ask me about! This is not rocket science, lol... Incredibly annoying.
Anyway, I still love CMG and will keep eating there.
Oh, and to make things interesting, I decided to post a contact email address in the "about" section of the blog. I will try to respond to every email, but keep in mind I may not look in that email box all the time.
I will try to post more, though.
http://brooklyninvestor.blogspot.com/2016/11/perpetual-option-och-ziff-capital.html (read original with tables)
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As with IQ Option, Binomo has broadened its reach into CFD trading alongside binary options. Trading on this site works much the same way. You select the asset you want to trade (Bitcoin, Crypto IDX, or any other asset), choose your investment amount, an option expiry time, and then buy or sell depending on what you think about where the asset is going to end the expiration time. He’s been working for 7 Binary Options since April 2014 and brings a wealth of knowledge and experience to his role. He’s played a crucial part in developing the site and helping it grow. In his role as writer and consultant, John’s keen to help others get ahead in the ever-changing world of binary options and forex trading. He’s always happy to advise others, whether it’s complete ... Thursday, 30 January 2014. Choose a Perfect Binary Options Broker Online. One of the best and most interesting trading systems is a binary options trading system. These are usually termed as financial products in which the trader has to decide whether the value of the asset will rise or fall over a certain period of time. The returns are generally fixed before the contract is made. This system ... #1 Binary Options Trading System 2014 - 6 per hour! Binary Matrix Pro! Best Binary Trading Software. Best binary options software 2014. Compare with best binary options software 2014 wilson neo wilson neo. It is a debit of 5.31 points. Binary Options Broker, BigOption, is the world's leading and most innovative options trading platform, serving traders in global regions. Top10Binary.net offers ... He’s been working for 7 Binary Options since April 2014 and brings a wealth of knowledge and experience to his role. He’s played a crucial part in developing the site and helping it grow. In his role as writer and consultant, John’s keen to help others get ahead in the ever-changing world of binary options and forex trading. He’s always happy to advise others, whether it’s complete ... Most of these software’s also provide the option to send signals to your email as well. Most of the best binary options software available are this type of service. As, the automated trading systems in the binary market have been mostly useless black-box trading services with no real strategy. Binary Options Signals; This type of binary options product is generally simpler than the software ... Binary option trading on margin involves high risk, and is not suitable for all investors. As a leveraged product losses are able to exceed initial deposits and capital is at risk. Before deciding to trade binary options or any other financial instrument you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. He’s been working for 7 Binary Options since April 2014 and brings a wealth of knowledge and experience to his role. He’s played a crucial part in developing the site and helping it grow. In his role as writer and consultant, John’s keen to help others get ahead in the ever-changing world of binary options and forex trading. He’s always happy to advise others, whether it’s complete ... Trusted Binary Options Brokers. Without doing some research when you are looking to place and trade Binary Options online then you really are at the mercy of some of the poorly run and operated trading sites, with this in mind please do make sure that you have a look around our website for every single site listed has ticked all of the right boxes in regards to what they have to offer their ... USA REGULATION NOTICE: Please note if you are from the USA: some binary options companies are not regulated within the United States. These companies are not supervised, connected or affiliated with any of the regulatory agencies such as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), National Futures Association (NFA), Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or the Financial Industry ...

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Binäre Optionen handeln mit Strategie - YouTube

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